Can’t Teach an Old Dog

March 10th, 2011

I’ve reached 7600 hands since my last LeakBuster analysis and I couldn’t wait any longer (even though 2 more sessions would have done it). So I ran the numbers again.

Apparently I’ve got worse!

The biggest leak apparently was losing at showdown too often (obviously a bad thing to lose at showdown, but what they mean is that I’m not folding earlier in the hand enough). Their ‘ideal’ range is about 51-58%. Previously I was 46.7%, now it’s 46.4%, so failed there (oh, actual stat is W$SD%, so bigger the % the better).

Next was Flop fold to cbet – I wasn’t folding enough, they want 46-63% and again I’m still falling short with no improvement from previously.

However my cbet% has rocketed from 40% to 80%, actually overshooting their recommended range (but only by a couple of percent, earning me an A-).

So I’m annoyed with myself now – I thought I was folding LOADS more, but evidently not. I was even thinking that I was playing better, even though it took a bit of spewage mid-way;

Well, probably I am playing better really. There’s definitely fewer catastrophic crashes where I continually failed to fold marginals vs obvious monsters – I have folded a lot more QQ, KK & Aces than ever before!

Here’s a hand for amusement’s sake. Possibly if I didn’t show results it would even look reasonably played :-) (plus subtle nanostake brag involving stack sizes)

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($3.35)
Hero ($18.02)
CO ($7.88)
BTN ($2.80)
SB ($7.50)
BB ($6.06)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: 8clubs poker card 5clubs poker card 4diamonds poker card ($0.52, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN goes all-in $2.65, Hero calls $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: 4spades poker card ($8.47, 3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero raises to $13.27, CO goes all-in $3.48

River: Jclubs poker card ($26.82, 3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $26.82
Hero shows a full house, Jacks full of Fours
Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
CO shows a full house, Eights full of Fours
8hearts poker card 8spades poker card
BTN shows four of a kind, Fours
4clubs poker card 4hearts poker card

Hero wins $17.67 (net +$1.60)
BTN wins $7.91 (net +$5.11)

CO lost $7.88

Better Maybe? Or At Least, Not So Awful

March 4th, 2011

So I’m cbetting more, folding to raises more, and brand new opening range. Is it working? I’m not sure, it definitely feels a lot better, but results aren’t exactly stellar;

Especially as this is NL5! Nevertheless compared to my previous Rush outings this is incredibly good believe it or not. Apart from today – if something could go wrong, then today it did. Nobody folded to a cbet, villain’s draws always got there, Aces cracked, and I’ve never seen so many monsters end up as split pots! AA vs AA and then stuff like this;

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($10.82)
UTG+1 ($10.05)
CO ($1.27)
BTN ($5.40)
SB ($1.44)
Hero ($5)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BB Ahearts poker card Qclubs poker card
4 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.10

Flop: 8hearts poker card Aclubs poker card Qspades poker card ($0.30, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: 8clubs poker card ($0.90, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB goes all-in $0.99

River: 8diamonds poker card ($2.89, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $2.89
SB shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
5diamonds poker card Aspades poker card
Hero shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
Ahearts poker card Qclubs poker card

Hero collects $1.35 (net -$0.10)
SB collects $1.35 (net -$0.09)

I’m not saying I didn’t make some mistakes today, but I’ve been making fewer and that’s made me notice that sometimes things just go downwards no matter what you do. The cards just don’t come, they always have it, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Weird how it happens in streaks, although I guess it’s because it’s a streak that it’s noticeable.

So dunno if leakbuster is helping yet. I suspect it has, but there’s still a long way to go yet. Certainly playing 10k hands before doing an analysis again is stretching my patience (that’s a week & I’m only a third of the way through).

2 comments
  1. Simon Debanks

    Good luck with the leak fixing, I was thinking of getting HEM for that feature alone. Keep grinding, as someone who plays a lot of rush I feel your pain. I’m on a long break even stretch, and it’s down to running poorly in all-in EV along with poor play on my part. I’m just patiently waiting for a heater to put things right. Until then though I’m just trying to control my frustration enough to still play sound poker. Tough tho!

  2. Meteoric

    Cheers! I’ve never really put this much volume in before, and I’m surprised how much I’m learning from it. I’m playing 4 tables of Rush, which I guess is the equivalent of 10-12 tabling previously which I never could have managed on my laptop.

    I’m almost at 6k hands now so 4k to next Leakbuster checkup. It’s still swinging wildly up and down so I’m pretty much breakeven. The bits of runbad are very noticeable while they’re happening – you almost know that their flushes will hit while you don’t even hit a flop. I have had a few beautiful 3 way all-ins that have held, and when that happens it’s awesome :-D

    Only thing on Rush I’m missing are the light calldowns (mid PP’s on Q high boards sort of thing), it just moves too fast & villain’s too unknown to really pick those up. I probably should be avoiding that sort of thing like the plague anyway tbh!

First Supernova Elite of the Year

March 1st, 2011

Congrats to azntracker for making SNE in 59 days – breaking all previous records!

LeakBuster

March 1st, 2011

In the last post I mentioned I was playing a bit of 6max for a change. At that point it was going well, mainly because I was two tabling, taking it slowly and concentrating on reads on opponents. Cake doesn’t allow a HUD, so it was interesting to see how much I could keep track of. Two tables was definitely the limit – I tried three and any attempts to make reads on the 15 opponents went completely out of the window.

My winrate also nose-dived, which was then further compounded by a quick go on Rush which of course also crashed. I returned to two tables on Cake, and then had one of my worst sessions ever (in bb, had worse in $$$). I spewed a bunch of stacks, and then ran some more stacks into better hands, and it just kept going. In the end I’d lost 7 buy-ins in just over an hour. To make it extra humiliating, the results charts was a straight diagonal line from top left to bottom right – this wasn’t a winning session ruined by some lost stacks, this was pure fishbowl territory :-(

My game is clearly a disaster. I might have learnt a lot about poker, and played a lot of hands, but I’m doing it wrong. Very wrong.

Yegor suggested LeakBuster (is he the only one who suggests anything to me around here?), and we had a play with the trial version and it looked useful. It analyses your stats from HEM, and points out areas where you’re deviating from what’s commonly held to be sensible. The trial version pointed out a few things, but I needed to buy it ($50) to get the full functionality. Since I’d just spewed more than that in an hour, the price didn’t look too bad.

I’m aware these are just stats though – I saw a quote on 2p2 that was made the point perfectly; ‘Solid poker makes good stats, solid stats doesn’t make good poker’

If I’m going to make this program work for me, I’ll need to be careful to understand how to change my game in response to what it’s telling me. I need to change my strategy, which will change the stats, not play to change the stats directly.

Unfortunately it was telling me a lot! Everything was out of whack one way or another. It was almost overwhelming and not clear what to tackle first. The big leak that seemed to be costing me money was W$SD & WTSD% – I was seeing showdowns too often, and usually with not the best hand. I watched their video on calling light, but it didn’t really help (combinatrics!).

Then I realised that it was also telling me these things;

a) My opening range was poor – too loose and too many problem hands.
b) I wasn’t cbetting enough
c) I wasn’t folding after being raised on the flop
d) I wasn’t folding to flop cbets enough
e) I was calling 3bets too light.

If I corrected all these actions, then that would mean more folding during the hand, and would reduce my WTSD%. Which would then make my showdowns a bit more ‘quality’, and improve the W$SD.

So I’ve gone right back to basics, and created (shock horror) a starting hand chart! I then dived into some nl5 Rush and held myself to that chart, cbet loads more, folded loads more, and generally concentrated like mad on those 5 points above.

It was tricky to remember other elements of the game while concentrating on those key points – my defending of the blinds virtually disappeared (not a big problem in the short term though), and I found myself only open-raising or folding pre (PP’s being the only hand I called to earlier bet). I managed 500 hands (didn’t start until late), and it was reasonably succesful. Perhaps two hands I should really have let go (JJ overpair calling down to see QQ was one), plus a couple of bad beats (QJ 2pair seeing AA all-in on flop, turn & river were both 5). My WTSD% stat improved, but sample size is way too small. I’m going to play sets of 10k hands and then re-analyse with leakbuster. Might even blog my progress if it’s not too dull :-)

Economics

February 22nd, 2011

I’ve played a bunch of hands at 6max now – generally I was winning which is good. I then had a bash at some MTTs and got nowhere so I’m back to my original deposit on Cake. At least it’s not less than what I started out at. I still think I should withdraw the money and go back to Full Tilt, but the effort is too much at the moment (so lazy!).

Money is on my mind though – I was looking at mortgages to get an idea of what kind of depost I need, and it seems to be going up each time I look. It seems the maximum mortgage I could get is about £200k, which gets you a 1 bedroom flat in Cambridge. I looked at the house prices in Sheffield where I used to live, and they look a bit more reasonable, but then when I looked at the job market that was lower paid too. That would mean I could only get a smaller mortgage, which meant a 1 bedroom flat again! It’s not like I’m low paid really, so god knows how everyone else manages (well, they all get married and buy as a couple. Guess I really do need to marry for money…).

Anyway, I found this website which shows how prices have changed in the UK over the last 10 years;

Regular stuff like food, drink, pensions, petrol was all roughly up 40% so that’s what I’m taking as the yardstick to measure everything else against.

House prices up a whopping 123%

Average salary up only 13%

Level of UK Consumer debt up 158%

How can that be a reasonable way of living? I must be stupid living in this country, esp without rakeback

1 comment
  1. yegor

    1br flat in a country with full rakeback(Monaco that is, insert affiliate link) is at least 5 times more expensive. i think it’s possible to find 1br flat in moscow for 200k gbp but our salaries are lower and mortgage rates start from 11.5% (lol@3-4% in uk)..seems the m-word is the only way..

Variety

February 21st, 2011

So I deposited on Cake, but merely moments later a chat from Yegor popped up saying don’t play nl25 hu. Rake and lack of ability would probably make it a bit suicidal. Of course I disagree totally with the ability part :) , but it did stop me.

I played a few husngs instead, which were admittedly really really easy – the only losses were from legitimate bad beats (high 2pair vs low 2pair ends with the villain somehow getting a backdoor flush of all things!). However the traffic was dismal, and the only reason why I got any action at all was because there was one other player who was determined to play.

I then switched to 6max for a bit. Just for fun, no real intentions of taking it too seriously. Amazingly it was actually enjoyable, and I turned a proft that felt well earned rather than luckboxed (srsly). It was also remarkable that the past year of concentrating solely on husngs had also taught me a few things that helped as well.

In particular were the moments that the table broke up leaving you heads up against the other remaining player. They were incredibly bad at heads up play – generally too tight more than anything. You could run over them by just continually betting, and I think in these spots I was winning at a massively faster rate than when the table was full.

I also was less of a calling station, although I’m not sure if heads-up had taught me that. Maybe it did, because things were definitely improved.

However Cake still remained unappealing. I have never before seen my winnings+rakeback line diverge from my winnings line so quickly. The amount of rake I was paying seemed to be horrendous – the Rakeback deal I have is pretty good, so perhaps not so painful, but it just didn’t seem right. On the other hand rakeback is a variance free payment, but that’s kind of stupid – it’s not as if it’s paying bills.

So the plan is to take the money back out of Cake and return to Full Tilt (well, maybe with a detour to BetRaiser and see if a rake-free (no rake!!!) game of microstakes 6max is doable when there’s only 20 people ever on the site). What I am changing though is opening my game up more – I’ll still play husngs, but not exclusively. I’m going to play 6max again, with some MTTs thrown in, and also dabble with some other games like Omahaha (Omalol?). Focussing on one game for the last year was good for my poker skills, but I think it’s not really benefitting me as much as it did. Time to take a sabbatical…

Microstakes HU Cash

February 18th, 2011

So Yegor reminds me how expensive the rake is for nanostakes HU cash. I went to PTR and looked at the their Rake comparison page, which calculates the average rake per 100 hands from their database (rather than using the poker site’s arcane rake calculations). I came up with this table for the three sites that do HU less than nl50;


nl2 nl5 nl10 nl25 nl50
Cereus $ 0.62
1.85 3.00 5.00
bb 0.31
0.19 0.12 0.10
35.00%
0.20
0.12 0.08 0.07
Bodog Poker $
0.66 1.60 3.90 6.82
bb
0.13 0.16 0.16 0.14
28%?

0.10 0.12 0.11 0.10
Cake Poker $


2.87 5.00
bb


0.11 0.10
38.00%



0.07 0.06
iPoker $ 0.57 1.16 2.62 3.30 6.30
bb 0.29 0.23 0.26 0.13 0.13
30%?
0.20 0.16 0.18 0.09 0.09

I added a new column which converted their $ values for bb (I think? – probably got it wrong, but whatever), then the lowest values for each buy-in level is bolded. Finally I added another column which gave the bb reduced by my rakeback (albeit at my rate as an affiliate – drop a few points off that for the masses).

It looks like nl5 might be ok with Bodog, and then above that Cake looks good. nl2 is clearly a waste of time. The only thing about Bodog is that it’s not a regular rake sign-up, it has to be a ‘secret’ bonus offer I can offer through people already signed up with meteoricpoker.com and I haven’t figured out how to enable it yet (sooo professional!). I already have the Cake account though, so could just jump in at nl25. No HUD though which is a bit scary.

3 comments
  1. yegor

    i like this post but it could’ve used a little more cowbell…erm..rake

  2. Meteoric

  3. yegor

    [x] cowbell itt


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