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I’m a Losing Player

Sunday, May 29th, 2011

I’m going to have to redeposit again. This is so frustrating, although financially not a big deal – over my lifetime of online poker I’m now into the red and have lost about $130. That’s not a lot for 5 years of ‘entertainment’ – I’ve spent far more on shorter lasting and more trivial pasttimes. But it’s frustrating that my bankroll isn’t self-sustaining, even with proper bankroll management.

This year’s Rush 5nl looks like;

Somehow my losses are exactly equal to the rake I’ve paid. So it really has been 50/50 all the way, with Full Tilt being the only winner thanks to Rake.

Which brings me to my other frustration – Leak Buster has my leaks as pretty much just W$SD (won $ at showdown) being too low. Every other stat is smack on target, even WTSD% (percentage went to showdown). Basically I’m showing down the same amount of hands as a winning player, except my hands are losing more than theirs.

So Leak Buster’s final analysis – I need to run better? Who knows…

Anyway, with the redeposit I’m going to switch games (again). I’m going to drop Rush and go back to regular table games, with the aim to work on my player reading skills. So basically trying to understand player types and how to exploit them, which isn’t really possible on nl5 Rush (too many players, not enough time to build proper stats on them, with position on you constantly changing). It’ll have that double edged benefit of reduced volume though (slower to throw money away, but less visibility of progress through variance).

I’m going to try and deposit on Carbon (Merge network), but they’re having issues with so many players moving to their site and attempts so far have failed. So back to Full Tilt possibly if it fails again.

Up, Not Down

Monday, May 9th, 2011

Things seem to be going well for a change;

I feel pretty good as well – obviously nl5 is not the most challenging of levels, but I actually believe that I properly outplayed them and deserved every penny. The last 1k of that is nl10, and that’s going nicely too (a lot less passive, but they’re still moronic).

All I need to do now is not drift and put some volume in. Stick to the plan, keep a level head etc. I’ve got a lot of catching up to do since everyone else I know is splashing around nl25 – nl100 now, but it’s not a big deal. I’m still learning the game…

Swongs – Wrong Place, Wrong Time

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

I still don’t know if I suck at poker, or if I take swings far too personally. I redeposited on Full Tilt to take advantage of the bonus they’re offering at the moment, and decided to nl10 Rush it to have some chance of clearing it.

Didn’t go so well;

I did clear $5 of the bonus during that disaster though!

Everything I did seemed to meet some kind of resistance – flop cbet success only 45%, 3bets all over the place, and generally everything was awful.

I looked back over the hands, and of course there were some terrible ones – usually 3 barrel bluffs, but not too much that I should be ashamed of.

So I dropped down in stakes just to stop the bleed, and gave up on the bonus.

Instantly there was a difference – my cbets were working! They folded to my steals, they folded to my 3bet defending in the blinds, they even started paying off the odd hand or two;

Flop cbet success now at a reasonable 60%.

Small sample size (in both cases really), but I can’t believe nl5 should be so different to nl10. Surely they should be more or less the same?

Either there IS a difference, and everyone’s solid at nl10 (!?!), or I experienced a bad downswing – my opponents really did just ‘have it’ each and every time.

I also can’t believe I’m still writing about these nanostakes, but maybe understanding these swings is part of the learning process. I’ve never put in large amounts of volume, and over-reacting to swings in the BR like this has probably not been too healthy. Never mind, I’ll just enjoy the game for being a game for now…

Just a Little Bit

Tuesday, April 19th, 2011

So my shares in Party shot up about 30% :-) Not quite back up to the value before the Germans announced the tax proposal (funny that – dropped 30%, rose 30%, but not back to where it started – damn maths), but since I bought a bunch more at the bottom it means I’m averaging out to breakeven. Quite happy with that – roll on US regulation!

I figured out that all the fees for selling and buying shares had come to about £120 in the last month, which was a bit of a shock. Share dealing rake obviously. I need to calm it down a bit and just sit on the shares I have now. That was the original intention, but I got caught out in a bit of rollercoasting…

For poker I’ve been playing on Cake – 6max, ultra low stakes. More for relaxation rather than anything intense since I’m still very busy on that web contract. I logged in and found $60 just sitting there, so decided to see if I could build it up a bit. Reckon I’ll try a 10 buy-in BRM which is edgy, but I can’t face nl4 for too long. Setting that limit means at least I’ll have to put some effort into nl4 before spazzing it away at nl10. Plus Cake is kinda interesting with no HUD allowed – I’m making a lot more efforts with the notes (like ‘spazz bastard owes me $8′, ‘called me fish – DIAGF’ etc).

For returning to Rush I’d need to redeposit, but I want to see how Full Tilt copes over the next couple of months first. I expect them to be ok, but who knows what damage has been really done under the covers. That may change next week since I have the whole week off, and once the Cake money is spewed out, I’ll need to go somewhere obv.

Can’t Teach an Old Dog

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

I’ve reached 7600 hands since my last LeakBuster analysis and I couldn’t wait any longer (even though 2 more sessions would have done it). So I ran the numbers again.

Apparently I’ve got worse!

The biggest leak apparently was losing at showdown too often (obviously a bad thing to lose at showdown, but what they mean is that I’m not folding earlier in the hand enough). Their ‘ideal’ range is about 51-58%. Previously I was 46.7%, now it’s 46.4%, so failed there (oh, actual stat is W$SD%, so bigger the % the better).

Next was Flop fold to cbet – I wasn’t folding enough, they want 46-63% and again I’m still falling short with no improvement from previously.

However my cbet% has rocketed from 40% to 80%, actually overshooting their recommended range (but only by a couple of percent, earning me an A-).

So I’m annoyed with myself now – I thought I was folding LOADS more, but evidently not. I was even thinking that I was playing better, even though it took a bit of spewage mid-way;

Well, probably I am playing better really. There’s definitely fewer catastrophic crashes where I continually failed to fold marginals vs obvious monsters – I have folded a lot more QQ, KK & Aces than ever before!

Here’s a hand for amusement’s sake. Possibly if I didn’t show results it would even look reasonably played :-) (plus subtle nanostake brag involving stack sizes)

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($3.35)
Hero ($18.02)
CO ($7.88)
BTN ($2.80)
SB ($7.50)
BB ($6.06)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: 8clubs poker card 5clubs poker card 4diamonds poker card ($0.52, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN goes all-in $2.65, Hero calls $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: 4spades poker card ($8.47, 3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero raises to $13.27, CO goes all-in $3.48

River: Jclubs poker card ($26.82, 3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $26.82
Hero shows a full house, Jacks full of Fours
Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
CO shows a full house, Eights full of Fours
8hearts poker card 8spades poker card
BTN shows four of a kind, Fours
4clubs poker card 4hearts poker card

Hero wins $17.67 (net +$1.60)
BTN wins $7.91 (net +$5.11)

CO lost $7.88

Better Maybe? Or At Least, Not So Awful

Friday, March 4th, 2011

So I’m cbetting more, folding to raises more, and brand new opening range. Is it working? I’m not sure, it definitely feels a lot better, but results aren’t exactly stellar;

Especially as this is NL5! Nevertheless compared to my previous Rush outings this is incredibly good believe it or not. Apart from today – if something could go wrong, then today it did. Nobody folded to a cbet, villain’s draws always got there, Aces cracked, and I’ve never seen so many monsters end up as split pots! AA vs AA and then stuff like this;

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($10.82)
UTG+1 ($10.05)
CO ($1.27)
BTN ($5.40)
SB ($1.44)
Hero ($5)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BB Ahearts poker card Qclubs poker card
4 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.10

Flop: 8hearts poker card Aclubs poker card Qspades poker card ($0.30, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: 8clubs poker card ($0.90, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB goes all-in $0.99

River: 8diamonds poker card ($2.89, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $2.89
SB shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
5diamonds poker card Aspades poker card
Hero shows a full house, Eights full of Aces
Ahearts poker card Qclubs poker card

Hero collects $1.35 (net -$0.10)
SB collects $1.35 (net -$0.09)

I’m not saying I didn’t make some mistakes today, but I’ve been making fewer and that’s made me notice that sometimes things just go downwards no matter what you do. The cards just don’t come, they always have it, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Weird how it happens in streaks, although I guess it’s because it’s a streak that it’s noticeable.

So dunno if leakbuster is helping yet. I suspect it has, but there’s still a long way to go yet. Certainly playing 10k hands before doing an analysis again is stretching my patience (that’s a week & I’m only a third of the way through).

LeakBuster

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

In the last post I mentioned I was playing a bit of 6max for a change. At that point it was going well, mainly because I was two tabling, taking it slowly and concentrating on reads on opponents. Cake doesn’t allow a HUD, so it was interesting to see how much I could keep track of. Two tables was definitely the limit – I tried three and any attempts to make reads on the 15 opponents went completely out of the window.

My winrate also nose-dived, which was then further compounded by a quick go on Rush which of course also crashed. I returned to two tables on Cake, and then had one of my worst sessions ever (in bb, had worse in $$$). I spewed a bunch of stacks, and then ran some more stacks into better hands, and it just kept going. In the end I’d lost 7 buy-ins in just over an hour. To make it extra humiliating, the results charts was a straight diagonal line from top left to bottom right – this wasn’t a winning session ruined by some lost stacks, this was pure fishbowl territory :-(

My game is clearly a disaster. I might have learnt a lot about poker, and played a lot of hands, but I’m doing it wrong. Very wrong.

Yegor suggested LeakBuster (is he the only one who suggests anything to me around here?), and we had a play with the trial version and it looked useful. It analyses your stats from HEM, and points out areas where you’re deviating from what’s commonly held to be sensible. The trial version pointed out a few things, but I needed to buy it ($50) to get the full functionality. Since I’d just spewed more than that in an hour, the price didn’t look too bad.

I’m aware these are just stats though – I saw a quote on 2p2 that was made the point perfectly; ‘Solid poker makes good stats, solid stats doesn’t make good poker’

If I’m going to make this program work for me, I’ll need to be careful to understand how to change my game in response to what it’s telling me. I need to change my strategy, which will change the stats, not play to change the stats directly.

Unfortunately it was telling me a lot! Everything was out of whack one way or another. It was almost overwhelming and not clear what to tackle first. The big leak that seemed to be costing me money was W$SD & WTSD% – I was seeing showdowns too often, and usually with not the best hand. I watched their video on calling light, but it didn’t really help (combinatrics!).

Then I realised that it was also telling me these things;

a) My opening range was poor – too loose and too many problem hands.
b) I wasn’t cbetting enough
c) I wasn’t folding after being raised on the flop
d) I wasn’t folding to flop cbets enough
e) I was calling 3bets too light.

If I corrected all these actions, then that would mean more folding during the hand, and would reduce my WTSD%. Which would then make my showdowns a bit more ‘quality’, and improve the W$SD.

So I’ve gone right back to basics, and created (shock horror) a starting hand chart! I then dived into some nl5 Rush and held myself to that chart, cbet loads more, folded loads more, and generally concentrated like mad on those 5 points above.

It was tricky to remember other elements of the game while concentrating on those key points – my defending of the blinds virtually disappeared (not a big problem in the short term though), and I found myself only open-raising or folding pre (PP’s being the only hand I called to earlier bet). I managed 500 hands (didn’t start until late), and it was reasonably succesful. Perhaps two hands I should really have let go (JJ overpair calling down to see QQ was one), plus a couple of bad beats (QJ 2pair seeing AA all-in on flop, turn & river were both 5). My WTSD% stat improved, but sample size is way too small. I’m going to play sets of 10k hands and then re-analyse with leakbuster. Might even blog my progress if it’s not too dull :-)


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