Another low blog post week has gone by – I have been playing, but it’s been remarkably unexciting. The last three sessions have been particularly disappointing as I played well 99% of the time only to mess a couple of hands up in each making each come  out -ve.

The last session’s big bad hand probably wasn’t played badly if you go by pot odds though;

However, it was a big pot to gambool on. All the worse since the gamble didn’t pay off. It was clear that I had to hit that flush to win, since it was unlikely both the other players were on a draw (and even if they were it’s really unlikely I’d have had the highest card!). Even hitting the flush was probably not a guaranteed win either (even though it turned out neither were on a flush draw). So, lost 2 buy-ins at a stroke there

There have been a couple of changes in my game lately, although more experimental than definite leak fixing. The first is donk betting. More often than not if in the situation where I could donk bet I do. Either I’ve missed the flop and the preflop raiser checked, in which case I bet as a bluff, or I’ve hit the flop and I bet for value. The betting as a bluff is working out I believe – at NL5 most checks from the villain is because they’ve missed the flop (I’m not expecting this to be the case >NL10 though – too many people understand the cbet). The donk betting for value though is starting to be uncertain – it seems common opinion is it’s better to check and wait for the turn, after all only better hands would call. On the other hand, a large percentage of players will call a flop bet (dismissing it as a cbet with air) and reevaluate on the turn. I’m still unsure what my line is with donk betting really – I wish it wasn’t called donk betting though, it seems overly disparaging for what could be a reasonable line (at what times though?).

Second change is more shoves with AK – if I open with AK and get 3bet I’ll shove, whereas before I’d call and wait to hit the flop before continuing. I checked PokerTracker and found that the fold equity in the shove outweighed the losses in the flip in coming up against a pair (ie let’s assume AK vs PP cancel out, leaving plenty of profit from AK vs AQ, AJ etc and 3betters who fold). However, last three sessions my flips have all gone the wrong way, so suffering a bit from variance there (btw, calling a shove with AK is a different kettle of fish, and generally I won’t unless I’ve 3bet leaving a small relative stack behind – too many shoves are KK+ and it doesn’t seem to be worth it).

So. Bankroll is at $220, with about $30 to come in rakeback. I’m annoyed that I haven’t got to $250 from the cards themselves, but $250 is $250, and I’ll be going to NL10 as soon as that Rakeback arrives. Actually I’m also annoyed that $50 of that $220 was the Take 2 bonus, so it’s really not like I’ve played my way here although filtering on my NL5 results does show a $180 win so far, and it’s only the NL10 that’s destroyed my earnings so far. Mixed feelings, but certainly not feeling that I’m beating the nanostakes game really.