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Still Playing Solidly

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Another $20 towards the grand $200 challenge. I’ve been feeling hungover all day after a few too many beers last night when a friend turned up in Cambridge out of the blue. At the same time I’ve been super keen to get back on the tables now that I seem to have put my finger on my biggest leak. So today I wasn’t up to mass tabling (lol, 6 is mass tabling to me!) and so only played three tables but made the effort to really watch the other players.

Consequently I probably did a few more FPS plays than I should have, but they pretty much all went my way. A bit dangerous that as it’ll reinforce the mistaken belief that I’m the master of manipulation and I’m going to get too cocky.

Anyways, here’s where I’m at. $100 – half way there;

Today was 350 hands, which is around that toothshaped notch at the end (yet again the session started with losing a stack – this time QQ finding itself against KK, standard stuff really).

MiniUpdate: PlusEV is awesome. I’ve got to January 2008 and it keeps getting funnier & funnier. My head is starting to hurt a bit now tho…

MicroUpdate: hmm, read them all now. That was a quick two years – guess it’s getting harder to think of funny stuff. Well worth the migraine though.

Concentrated Luck

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

After my big thinking session yesterday I started today with a definite goal to watch those hands where I haven’t hit the flop. I wasn’t going to stop bluffing, but I was going to make sure I controlled the pot down to minimise my mistakes. $1.70 was a watershed amount – that’s pretty much two calls preflop and a cbet. Not that my bluffs are limited to cbets, but you get the idea I hope.

The session started out with a spot of bad luck though – I had AK in the BB, and 3bet the CO who’d opened. He minraised me so I shoved. Unfortunately he had KK. Fortunately I hit one of my aces! Unfortunately he hit the last K in the deck on the river. So I started the session from -$10 :-(

I chipped away and won back that $10 by about 30 hands later (30 hands! At the time it felt like a slow but steady increase, but 100bb in 30hands?! Perhaps I expect too much too often). I was really happy that I was avoiding the dumb mistakes I’d been making yesterday and that my regular play was showing a decent enough winrate. So I figured that the time was right to up the volume a bit and I opened a few more tables so that I was  6 tabling.

The extra tables went fine, and I was happily winning. I’ve fallen behind S1ndr0me a bit so needed to keep grinding away.

Then this happened all on the same table; First I got AA in the SB – BB and UTG raised me, I reraised, BB shoved, I called and won a $30 pot.

Next hand I folded pre.

Next hand I had AA in the CO. I reraised the MP, UTG called, MP shoved, I called and won a $50 pot.

Next hand I had KK in MP. I raised, and CO reraised me, I 4bet, he shoved, I called and won a $19 pot.

Amazing. Three premiums in a row plus action from the table. :-D

Current results for the bet;

Stretching the Legs of Hold’em Manager

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

So after throwing away a bunch of money I decided to leave the tables and do a bit of thinking. The reason was simple enough really – I’d got involved in hands where I’d air or weak holdings and painted myself into a corner. Inevitably either my river bluff would fail or my opponent would put in a raise that I felt pot committed enough to call, and then I’d watch my sweet sweet money disappear into their stack.

Ultimately the thing I’m doing wrong is making my FPS moves too expensive. They might work a lot of the time (honestly!), but I need to recognise when it’s going tits up and give up on that hand earlier while not bloating the pot further.

It didn’t take a genius to figure that one out. In fact I’m too ashamed to post those hands here – they might make you laugh, but I’m not happy about it. However it did get me into the mood of delving into the analysis side of Hold’em Manager and see what it can give me.

I took two periods of my poker ‘career’. Both are NL10, and the first was from April to July last year where I could do no wrong and won $300 over 13,000 hands (21BB/100). The second was my latest 13,000 hands where I’ve won $90 at just under 7BB/100. Nothing wrong with 7BB/100 of course, and the first period looks like a big heater, but it’s still worth a comparison to see if there’s a significant difference somewhere.

I pasted the comparison into a single big image – 21BB/100 on left, latest hands on right;

The first set of boxes is my opening range UTG, MP and CO. I’m kinda pleased with this – I knew that my game has both loosened up and become more aggressive and I was worried that my range had actually become completely wild. It looks fairly well controlled though, and both periods show that I stick to my ranges very solidly (I have no concerns about the lack of balance – what’s the point at NL10 when I rarely play anyone for more than a few hundred hands! That’s also why I’m not worried about publishing it here either, it’s not as if my screen name is meteoric either). As expected my range has widened a bit, mainly at the top end although I’ve also included more suited connectors. The one funny extra is 72o – this is because Ultimate Bet has 72 side bet tables, and it’s worth a quick 3bet or flop cbet with 72o just for this side bet. (Edit – at least, it doesn’t look like it’s gone wild to me, but then I’ve little to compare against. Maybe I shouldn’t loosen up my early position as much as that?)

The rest of the tables compare various situations such as flopped hands, showdown hands and positional stats. Since 13k hands isn’t a huge sample I’ve tried to pinpoint only those areas where the numbers are extremely different. So, from bottom upwards (sorry, that’s just the way they were pasted);

Positional stats at the bottom aren’t much different, and that doesn’t surprise me. It’s been a while since I really came to understand the power of position, and I don’t think I’m spewing too much by playing OOP in the wrong situations.

The flopped hands shows one big anomaly. When I hit a top pair with weak kicker (and no draw), last year I lost about $100 (it’s not too surprising that this is a losing hand, it could easily be out paired on later streets and obviously out-kicked) – the later session though I’ve lost $343 though!  It’s the biggest difference in that table, so I need to see what I’m doing differently. I’m probably just playing them too aggressively and not controlling the pot enough. There are probably two situations – ace with weak kicker, and a low top pair (for instance, 9′s on a 923 board). I need to see which is the one I’m messing up. It’s probably more likely to be the aces I think.

Edit – I’ve just realised this is TPWK or worse, so this is including high card hands. I need to dig a bit deeper. It wouldn’t surprise me that I’m now floating overcards too much…

The river made hands seems to suggest that the first session did owe a lot to being a heater – I seem to make a lot more big hands then than lately. Not much I can do about that, unless of course I’m folding too early too often now. Kindof doubt that though.

Groupings suggest big aces have suffered the most lately. I’m putting this one down to variance too – there are a lot of AK pots which become flips, and so a slight shift in luck can result in a large monetary swing.

So final conclusion – top pair weak kicker = my achilles heel. Need to look into this some more…

The $200 Race

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

Off to do some shopping, although probably at the expense of falling behind S1ndr0me’s first to $200 bet. I knocked out a few hands this morning, and will carry on later.

S1ndr0me, just to let you know where I’m at – Since 6th Jan;

Need to turn up the volume a bit, but then some of us had to battle the snow and go to work!!!

Will update later once I’ve played a bit more…

Update:

Disaster :-(

Time for a break…

World Blogger Championship Of Online Poker

Friday, January 8th, 2010

Snappy title says it all. Time to step up and get noticed.

The games are at 17:00 ET. It really annoys me that they state times as ET – what is that? There isn’t an ET timezone – there’s EST for east coast USA (or eastern australia), CET for central europe, EET is east europe. I guess they mean east coast States – typical American internet myopia (which also means a crappy 10pm starting time).

None of the following text is mine, the sneaky buggers have managed to get a bunch of links from this. Oh well, $60k freeroll is good enough I guess.


Online PokerI have registered to play in the Pokerstars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: 930826

The Poker Boom and Games Getting Harder

Wednesday, January 6th, 2010

For a while now there’s been a bunch of talk on the forums about how the halcyon days are over and games are now much tougher. I only started playing a couple of years ago, so don’t really know what it was like back in 2003 (that sounds so stupid, like we’re talking about decades ago. I guess it probably still feels like that to these 20-something whippersnappers who donked off their college years).

Still, that doesn’t stop me having a theory/opinion on what’s happening :-D

I should imagine back in the early days the playing field consisted of two groups of players – live players who added online play to their game for fun, and internet savvy nerds who saw online poker like any other online video game. The nerds quickly formed forums which disseminated information from books such as Sklansky’s stuff, and rapidly learnt to play the TAG style which could beat the live players.

The live players were at all stakes, and the nerds could rapidly progress up the stakes, finding easy targets at every step of the way. These were the good times. You didn’t even have to be that good. Just better than the live players.

Early 2003 had about between 5 to 10 thousand people online at peak times. Lots of nerds really, but in comparison to the live players the ratio favoured them and easily fed their climb through the stakes.

Now we have 80 to 100 thousand people online at peak times. The increase has probably been mostly from the nerds rather than the live players. The increase is still going on and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

My theory is that the microstakes have probably become easier – vast fields of nerds who’ve never played poker before, picked up a few tips from some websites, and are hoping to make the big bucks they’ve read about. The higher stakes games will have become harder since the players donating their live bankrolls have become vastly outnumbered by nerds who have climbed the stakes (and so not only have forum education but experience of 100′s of thousands of hands).

The former players who easily climbed the stakes back in the day will now struggle against the best of the new generation of nerds. We’re seeing this more and more now as the former stars struggle to stay in the game. Ironically many of them are moving to live games to maintain their income.

Seeing this many people are predicting the death of the game – it’s all drying up! For many people this is probably true – the difference is that now you actually have to be good at poker. The average college drop out won’t succeed, while the intelligent college drop out will. Furthermore the huge increase in the number of players means that the actual amount of money in the game becomes much more massive.

The final result is probably like any sport in the modern era – many decades ago any reasonably athletic person with time to train could make it and make some money, and now only the best of the best can make it, but they will earn insane amounts of money. Poker will be the same – only the best of the best will make it to the absolute top, but the amount of money they will make will dwarf the 20-something ballers of 2003. The average players will make less relatively, but probably more than the average player back in 2003. The losers will lose the same, the only difference is that there will be vastly more of them…

The first signs of this are coming through. Here’s a guy who won two million dollars last year playing limit hold’em. $2m by just grinding – find someone who did that back in 2003.

The question looking ahead though is what happens when the world starts to really notice that individuals are making tens of millions of dollars online? IMGEA will probably seem like a storm in a teacup at that point…

2009

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

The holiday season hasn’t been kind to me – in the second half of December I’ve thrown away $150. A lot of it was literally thrown away too. In a recent session I discovered that turning up the aggression slightly was working well – one move in particular where you’re out of position and it’s the kind of flop you’d cbet (dry board, single A or K on it), so you check and let your opponent do the cbet, and then you raise. Previously I’d call, and lead the turn, but obviously this has the downside of giving another card. So the flop check-raise was proving successful, and then I watched an awesome video on being a LAG. This unfortunately had the effect of me spewing $40 in a few hundred hands!

I think the differences between the session where the aggro worked and the one where I spewed were;

a) First session I’d already played for a while, and hadn’t shown myself to be anything out of the ordinary, while the second session I sat down and started firing away. Any idiot could put down as a aggrotard, and this is what happened (my check-raise was reraised every time just about).
b) I picked my spots more carefully the first time. I had got to know the players at the tables, and was able to pick and choose when to push harder. The second session I’d just started, and was basically trying to bully complete unknowns.
c) The second session I didn’t back down. I often continued against those players who pushed back at my 3bets. Consequently I ran into AA several times quite quickly. At one point I had to three barrel bluff, and the final river push finally made the guy fold, but how stupid is that! It worked once, but I don’t think it was a profitable thing to do…

So anyway, 2010 I will stop being an idiot. I’m still bankrolled for nl10, but only 10 buy-ins above the move down point – if I don’t even out I’ll be back at NL5 by February. However, you’ve got to experiment with your game I believe, so I don’t feel too bad (it’s not as if I’m going to turn pro any time soon).

Ok, onto the 2009 review;

Cash:

Tourney:

Well, it’s in the black! :-) (the $40 lost yesterday was 2010, so close thing to ruining the year’s results, lol).

The New Year, 2009
This time last year I’d dropped right down to NL2 – most of my game up to that point had been NL10 at Full Tilt (which was their lowest stakes at that time), and it hadn’t been going very well. So I moved to Pokerstars and dropped down, first to NL5 and then to NL2 as I continued to lose.

The Redeposit – April
In April I finally lost my entire account. I redeposited, and for some reason known only to myself at the time I went back to NL10. I then had a massive heater, gaining $350 in 20k hands. How that happened I’ve no idea! I should go back and look at those hands in detail, but as far as I can remember I was very very lucky – PokerTracker all-in performance says $120 over expected value at its peak.

The Cash Out – July
Inevitably the heater ran out, and I lost a bunch of $$$ pretty quickly. I think I’d upped the number of tables I was playing, plus overconfidence, and that led to much spewage. As it came crashing down a personal credit card problem suddenly arose and I had to withdraw my entire roll to pay for it. In hindsight this was actually a useful thing to happen to me. Firstly, it showed the kindness of friends as they immediately transferred to me a little bit of spare cash to keep playing. Secondly it made me decide to follow bankroll management properly. Up until that point I’d play NL10 if I had over $100 in my account (or over only $50 sometimes). Starting from $30 with the knowledge that I wouldn’t be able to redeposit in the next couple of months really made sure I did the right thing to avoid going busto again.

The Grind
So I returned to NL2 again. This time my game was much stronger and I rapidly built up enough to move to NL5. I carried on playing well and clipped $200 to move into NL10. I then lost a few buy-ins, and moved back down. Ground up, bust down. I did this 3 times (the three peaks at 41k, 51k and 65k hands). I suddenly realised I was doing the bankroll management slightly wrong – I had a single threshold of $200 where I moved either up or down. What I needed to do was set the move-up threshold higher than the move down one (ie $250 to move up, $200 to move down). This way I’d have a 5 buy-in margin to lose before having to move down.

The Donkament Win – November
I was within $20 of the $250 threshold, and it was taking ages (it says $60 on that graph, but I was also getting rakeback and bonuses which aren’t shown on the graph). It was November now, and I seemed to be on the most miserable downswing ever – no big spews, but not a single +ve session for ages and ages. Then one Sunday I was messing around playing some MTTs (as you can see from the graph above, I don’t tourney much), and suddenly went deep in a $2 180 man SNG. I walked away with $70 – I was finally in NL10 territory again.

The Final Fall
I seemed to be playing well and built my roll up to $450. It didn’t feel like a heater this time, and I felt confident that I was winning appropriate hands rather than sucking out. I decided to look closer at Rakeback and see which site was the best for me, and so I split my roll amongst 4 sites – Full Tilt, PokerStars, Ultimate Bet and Party Poker. The difference between the sites was amazing – at NL10 UB and PP was full of limpers who’d try to see every street, while FT and PS still had its usual compliment of 2p2 players. Despite this I’ve failed to profit from them, and even worse seemed to have spewed a ton of money.

Final Roundup
So what’s the roundup of the year? I have to be honest with myself and say I’m not very good at poker. Almost 100k hands, and still being buffeted around by variance and barely keeping above the rake. In fact since my chart shows only +$44 profit, it’s obvious my entire roll ($350 at end of 2009) is made entirely of rakeback and bonuses.

Is that a big problem? I guess not as I still enjoy playing. I still enjoy the challenge of learning a game where it’s clear that gaining knowledge and experience will lift you through the ranks. The frustration is coming from seeing the stakes I play as a goal in itself.

So my resolution for 2010 is to let go of the idea that I’m not a winning player if I can’t ascend rapidly up the stakes. I will play poker at the stakes my bankroll allows, and concentrate on being the best player I can for those stakes. I guess ascending graphs of $$$ won will show whether I’m succeeding, although for me it’ll be how I achieved it that’ll be more important…


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