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Stealing Blinds

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

I’ve probably blogged on this a load of times, but it’s always worth a brag. I was watching Pokey’s microstakes video which is a bit dated but still worth a view. He steals using minraises from the button which TBH isn’t that good at microstakes – limpers are quite likely to go that extra blind since it’s no biggy for them and they love to see the flop. At higher stakes I can imagine it’s fine as most people understand position enough to fold, and keeping the price of stealing that low pretty much guarantees it’s profitable.

Anyway, I decided to do a quick check on PokerTracker to see if my stealing is going ok – I’m a relentless blind stealer and even a constant 3bet defender won’t put me off (especially as all it takes is the odd decent hand against a manic 3betting blind to make it super profitable). Here are the results since April, filtered for stealing opportunities where I raised;

Since I rarely decide not to steal (if both blinds are 64 vpip types I might not, or against a manic 3bettor I admit I do tighten up a bit), it’s obvious that stealing pays – 39BB/100!! It’s almost worth just stealing and not playing any other hands (apart from that being insanely dull).

Position stats;

Position 1 is cutoff, and it’s always worth watching out for that ultratight player on your left who lets you steal through the button – extremely worth it in fact, you can see from the positional stats that it’s a higher BB/hand rate. Mainly this is because the button is just so obviously a stealing position that blinds give it a lot less credit than they should, while the CO is seen as a regular position and will respect your raise ;-) . I’m not a big fan of stealing from the small blind though – you’re generally only gaining one big blind while risking three and you’re OOP if called. Not a big enough deal to make a fuss about…

Don’t Need a HUD (apparently)

Friday, December 11th, 2009

Just found a set of 2p2 posts that are interesting reading;

Destroyed 3/6, time to move up (graph)
100k hands w. aHUD

Boywonder has an amazing record and his graphs are currently showing $500k profits, which must be nice. In his earliest post he says that the key to his success is emotional stability, ie no tilt of any form. to quote him;

I still maintain that whilst the technical aspects of the game have their place, emotional control will destroy talent any day.

He also is happy to play against regs rather than fight to play only against fish, believing that too many regs become technically competent but then stagnate in their abilities due to relying on HUDs and failing to recognise their own tilt;

Q: What do you think changed your game the most in terms of becoming such a winning player?

BW: Realizing that most regulars actually were not that solid and didn´t have their own game (most just basically have picked up somebody else’s preflop game that they´ve seen on a training video and have no clue why they are doing what they are doing – postflop they are usually spewy as xxxx). When you start zoning in how to scalp the regs, that´s when you start improving and that´s when you start beating the game for more than 1 ptbb / hour. And the basis for all of this was realizing how much of my game was dependant on playing when in the right emotional state, and learning how to maintain that mindframe.

If you don’t want to read the three huge threads, then this single post from boywonder would do (this one too).

Anyway, fairly inspiring stuff (although I don’t think I’ve even got the technical side down pat yet, let alone sorting out my tilt!). I might even throw away my HUD, or at least the stats part of it (and just leave the player notes box).

(mini update: Immediately after posting this I went to see if he had gone on to produce a video (he mentioned it in a post somewhere). I searched with boywonder poker video and on the third page found my blog with this post. Fast work Google! (I guess that link probably won’t show me in the results by the time anyone else clicks on it – results move around quickly!).

Attempts at Clearing the Bonus

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

So I opened up eight tables NL50 tables, buying in at 20bb ($10). I’d worked out that 6 max is actually more effective than full ring – since the rake is divided by the number of players dealt into the hand then the total rake you acquire per orbit is the same no matter whether it’s 6 or 9 players. The difference is though that 6 max you acquire that rake in 6 hands, while in full ring it takes 9 hands, so clearing the bonus takes a 1/3 less hands in 6max.

The downside is that it’s harder to multitable 6max since your turn comes around so much quicker, but 8 is still within my capability (at least for this SSS stuff where my VP$IP plummets to 15%).

So I started clicking away, and it quickly became obvious that this was going to be a high variance thing and I was way out of my bankroll comfort zone. I was immediately surprised how readily people called your shoves, even when you hadn’t entered a pot for the last 30 hands. I started out taking as many pots as I lost, but then a few went awry and I started to doubt what I was doing. So I stopped after only 20 minutes.

End result was a loss of only $14 which was remarkably good considering how much luck was involved – ridiculously this was actually offset by an accident when I was setting things up – I had installed Windows 7 the day before and Full Tilt still had its default settings. So I turned on autorebuy but messed up the 20bb setting, which resulted in me sitting at a table with a full $50 stack! I was folded to on the BB, and then in the button had KQs so thought I’d at least see the flop. I then took it down on a cbet, netting me $10! (I then quickly left the table!). So net result -$4 I guess :-) PokerTracker all-in ev claimed I was $50 under ev, but I think  it got confused by a threeway pot where I had QQ and so did one of the opponents…

On checking the bonus I’d cleared a few more dollars and it seemed that it matched up to general opinion that it’d take 7000 hands at NL50 to clear $100. I realised that playing 7k high variance hands just isn’t the way to clear a bonus…

So I switched back to my regular 4 tables of 100bb buy-in 6 max, now at NL10. After an hour and 380 hands I’d won about $30, and this only went to confirm that trying to play 7000 break-even hands just to clear $100 is a very stupid thing to do. Best to just accept the bonus and then ignore it – anything you clear is literally just a bonus!

I then had a break and came back for another 300 hands, but didn’t really improve much (all I achieved was halving the BB/100);

22Nov09N10

Making Notes

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Recently had a sweat session with a guy called Johnathan on a microstakes chat group I frequent. I didn’t play live, but instead zipped through a previously played session using the PokerTracker replayer. I think this worked quite well – I wanted to do it for several reasons;

  • My play would have been natural, not effected because someone was watching
  • We could concentrate on one table at a time
  • We could skip hands where I folded preflop

The final reason is only partly a good idea – obviously you miss what the other players have done at the table. Fortunately I hadn’t filtered the session on ‘put money in’ so we did at least see hands up to the point where I folded, and it was these hands that my sweat partner bought up a good point.

In several instances there had been a couple of limpers and I folded on the button (with complete trash like 83o etc). He pointed out that since I was on the button it was still worth raising while I was building up a picture of who my opponents were. Whether they fold or call (and then what they called with) was golden information when I had no other history on these players. He pointed out that I should be really taking notes on players and try to classify them (even at NL5). As the session went on, he made me classify various players at the table – then in later hands this information made it vastly more clear why certain players were doing what they were doing. So I was convinced.

This morning I opened up a couple of tables and tried to put it into action. The note taking facility on PokerTracker isn’t that great (or at least, I haven’t got the hang of it) so I just opened up notepad and figured that would do while I only had two tables open. The first difficulty was getting time to write the notes – it was like being a multitabler newbie all over again. I need to develop some acronyms and make the notes more concise.

It worked fairly well. Players rapidly showed whether they were calling stations or loose passive way before my HUD kicked in. I adapted to what I was seeing and ended up with a flawless session. It was perhaps an easy session though – everyone seemed to be huge stereotypes of what I was looking for, and even without the note taking I would have noticed how passive some of the guys to my left were. However as a first go I’m still a believer. Furthermore, it was actually fun – I had wondered if going back down to 2 tables would be dull, but to be honest it reawakened the player in me – I suspect that multitabling has really dulled my poker senses.

What I need to do now is stick to a low number of tables and improve my speed at getting those notes down. I guess I’ve got to nail down PokerTracker’s note facility, and come up with a clear and sensible notation.

Update: So what does this mean;

tightness_scatter-0.02-0.05-nl-6-fulltilt
Meteoric’s Looseness vs. Win Rate

this one too;
aggression_scatter-0.02-0.05-nl-6-fulltilt
Meteoric’s Aggression vs. Win Rate

All the ABC poker guides say tight play is better than loose (at NL5), and agression is better than passivity. If that’s true, why don’t those scatter plots slope down from left to right? A few outliers in the top chart slightly give that impression, but really taking the image as a whole it’s generally fairly symmetric.

Slow Month

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Not a lot of poker going on at the moment – my plate seems to be crammed with lots of other things that are getting in the way.

Admittedly there’s not much incentive though – my plans to move up when my account reached $250 has failed miserably since rather than increasing my $$$ I seem to be continually decreasing it. At the point I made that BR decision I was at $230 and it made plenty of sense to grind out that extra $20.

Instead it’s gone the other way and I’m down to $200. I made the mistake of reading one of those monthly results threads on 2p2, and naturally the only people showing their graphs were those who were happily climbing up. Depressing that my only increases to the BR have been through bonuses and rake, and my dismal play has now eroded even those gains.

Oh well. Need to play through this as they say. The difficult thing is knowing whether this is my fault or just variance. Or were my previous winning sessions my fault or just variance? I keep going back to PokerTracker to try and spot the problems, and it’s really hard to know just what’s going wrong. I suspect I should play more weakly (I think I’m tight enough), but it just feels so wrong!

Update: There’s a thread in the gossip section of 2p2 talking about who has the most meteoric rise in poker (a bit premature perhaps). A load of nits are going on about meteors not rising, which is the typical moron nittitude of many 2p2′ers, but it has made me realise my moniker is associated with things that crash and burn (well, burn and crash). Hmmm, don’t really have much to disagree with though…

Playing Well, But Not Building Bankroll

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Another low blog post week has gone by – I have been playing, but it’s been remarkably unexciting. The last three sessions have been particularly disappointing as I played well 99% of the time only to mess a couple of hands up in each making each come  out -ve.

The last session’s big bad hand probably wasn’t played badly if you go by pot odds though;

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($9.46)
CO ($5.20)
BTN ($11.32)
SB ($2.19)
BB ($2)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is UTG 7clubs poker card 8clubs poker card
Hero raises to $0.14, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.14, SB calls $0.12, 1 fold

Flop: 10diamonds poker card Jclubs poker card Kclubs poker card ($0.47, 3 players)
SB goes all-in $2.05, Hero calls $2.05, BTN goes all-in $11.18, Hero goes all-in $7.27

Turn: 2spades poker card ($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)

River: 6hearts poker card ($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $23.02
Hero shows
7clubs poker card 8clubs poker card
BTN shows
Jhearts poker card Kdiamonds poker card
SB shows
4hearts poker card Qhearts poker card

BTN wins $21.61 ( won +$10.29 )

Hero lost -$9.46
SB lost -$2.19

However, it was a big pot to gambool on. All the worse since the gamble didn’t pay off. It was clear that I had to hit that flush to win, since it was unlikely both the other players were on a draw (and even if they were it’s really unlikely I’d have had the highest card!). Even hitting the flush was probably not a guaranteed win either (even though it turned out neither were on a flush draw). So, lost 2 buy-ins at a stroke there :-(

There have been a couple of changes in my game lately, although more experimental than definite leak fixing. The first is donk betting. More often than not if in the situation where I could donk bet I do. Either I’ve missed the flop and the preflop raiser checked, in which case I bet as a bluff, or I’ve hit the flop and I bet for value. The betting as a bluff is working out I believe – at NL5 most checks from the villain is because they’ve missed the flop (I’m not expecting this to be the case >NL10 though – too many people understand the cbet). The donk betting for value though is starting to be uncertain – it seems common opinion is it’s better to check and wait for the turn, after all only better hands would call. On the other hand, a large percentage of players will call a flop bet (dismissing it as a cbet with air) and reevaluate on the turn. I’m still unsure what my line is with donk betting really – I wish it wasn’t called donk betting though, it seems overly disparaging for what could be a reasonable line (at what times though?).

Second change is more shoves with AK – if I open with AK and get 3bet I’ll shove, whereas before I’d call and wait to hit the flop before continuing. I checked PokerTracker and found that the fold equity in the shove outweighed the losses in the flip in coming up against a pair (ie let’s assume AK vs PP cancel out, leaving plenty of profit from AK vs AQ, AJ etc and 3betters who fold). However, last three sessions my flips have all gone the wrong way, so suffering a bit from variance there (btw, calling a shove with AK is a different kettle of fish, and generally I won’t unless I’ve 3bet leaving a small relative stack behind – too many shoves are KK+ and it doesn’t seem to be worth it).

So. Bankroll is at $220, with about $30 to come in rakeback. I’m annoyed that I haven’t got to $250 from the cards themselves, but $250 is $250, and I’ll be going to NL10 as soon as that rakeback arrives. Actually I’m also annoyed that $50 of that $220 was the Take 2 bonus, so it’s really not like I’ve played my way here :-( although filtering on my NL5 results does show a $180 win so far, and it’s only the NL10 that’s destroyed my earnings so far. Mixed feelings, but certainly not feeling that I’m beating the nanostakes game really.

My PokerTracker All In Performance Can’t be Working

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

So far this month my NL5 game has done ok – up $67;

24Sep09_NL5

Except I haven’t made $67 since my attempts at NL10 went wrong and I’m actually only $0.40 up :-( I guess it’s still +ve.

However it’s gets a bit shocking when you look at my all-in performance for NL5;

24Sep09_NL5-allinperformance

Clearly my PokerTracker is just plain broken. No other reason for it.

Other news – tomorrow I complete the Full Tilt Take 2 promotion, so that’s a free $50, plus rakeback is currently $25. Fantastic – if only I’d had rakeback a year ago, it would made so much difference…



Forum

Re: Forum is main site now by yegor_kgb 13:14, Aug 03 2010
Forum is main site now by Meteoric 21:27, Jul 30 2010
Re: StoxEV by Simon Debanks 09:25, May 07 2010
Re: StoxEV by Meteoric 20:05, Apr 29 2010
Re: StoxEV by yegor_kgb 08:30, Apr 28 2010
StoxEV by Simon Debanks 21:53, Apr 27 2010
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