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Why Was I Wasting My Time On Cash Games???

Sunday, January 31st, 2010

Sooo, husng’s seem to be going well.

Today I played 3 $5 games (accidentally, forgot to look closely enough in the lobby)  – lost one, won the other two.

I then played 9 $10 games (so far). Won 9, lost none :-D   Today’s profit so far is $90! Never ever have I had a winning day like this at cash – not just for the sheer amount of money, but for the relative lack of stress and ease of games! I don’t get it? It can’t be this easy surely?! (it probably isn’t – in my graph below it looks very heaterish :-) )

Anyway – husng history to date (all 6 days of it);

Yesterday I lost 4 out of 6 $10 games which dented my confidence a bit. Mustn’t let today’s unstoppable run go to my head – I should expect a loss soon and shrug it off…


Update: Damn, lost a couple;

;-)

I’m half way through a bottle of wine, so I should stop now. The WBCOOP starts in 45 minutes, and I was going to fill the tedium of that with more sng’s, but perhaps I shouldn’t push my luck.

First 50 HUSNGs

Saturday, January 30th, 2010

Completed my first 50 heads up sit ‘n’ go’s. Well, not quite true as I played a handful ages ago, but this is the first 50 since coach Yegor stepped in and pushed me up to $5 games (actually he said $10s, but being the timid fool that I am I wanted to paddle a bit first).

Results – 33 won, 18 lost (51 total) – ROI: 23%, total win: $62

So, now onto the $10′s I guess. I’m still having trouble seeing the big picture and get a twinge of depression when I lose a game – it’s a long term thing, gotta remember that.

Current sharkscope is;

husng’s are the second half of games played (prior to that is 2 years of randomly having a go at a 6max SNG now and again). Onwards and upwards…

My Go At Rush Poker

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Finally got round to having a go. Since I ran hot I like it :-)

That’s 277 hands in an hour which fits with what FTPDoug said – that’s about two and a half times the normal rate, so awesome for rakeback. Let’s face it – that’s the only way I ever build my roll, so looks like this is my game.

Of course, next time I play I’ll run bad and I’ll decide that Rush poker is a pile of crap. For now though I’m happy enough with it.

Still no confirmation on the Pokerstars WBCOOP. Since this post is going to knock it off the front page I’ll post the link stuff here again…


Online PokerI have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: 930826


Update: lol, I still like rush poker :-D

I upped it to two tables, and found I could cope with the speed. Possibly if I was using a proper mouse and not my laptop pad thing I could do 3 tables. At least that meant the next hour gave me 700 more hands.

Biggest hand was this one. I was on the verge of folding to what could have been a squeeze, and then realised we were both reasonably deep. Implied odds and all that, so I called. Then my sooooted connectors hit :-D

NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($25.11)
BB ($12.38)
UTG ($2.71)
Hero ($18.41)
CO ($24.65)
BTN ($9.60)

Dealt to Hero 7clubs poker card 6clubs poker card

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, fold, SB raises to $1.40, fold, Hero calls $1.10, fold

FLOP ($3.20) 4diamonds poker card 3clubs poker card 5clubs poker card

SB bets $2.10, Hero raises to $5.10, SB raises to $23.71 (AI), Hero calls $11.91 (AI)

TURN ($37.22) 4diamonds poker card 3clubs poker card 5clubs poker card Tspades poker card

RIVER ($37.22) 4diamonds poker card 3clubs poker card 5clubs poker card Tspades poker card 8spades poker card

SB shows Kclubs poker card Khearts poker card
(Pre 79%, Flop 4.9%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows 7clubs poker card 6clubs poker card
(Pre 21%, Flop 95.1%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $35.22

Stretching the Legs of Hold’em Manager

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

So after throwing away a bunch of money I decided to leave the tables and do a bit of thinking. The reason was simple enough really – I’d got involved in hands where I’d air or weak holdings and painted myself into a corner. Inevitably either my river bluff would fail or my opponent would put in a raise that I felt pot committed enough to call, and then I’d watch my sweet sweet money disappear into their stack.

Ultimately the thing I’m doing wrong is making my FPS moves too expensive. They might work a lot of the time (honestly!), but I need to recognise when it’s going tits up and give up on that hand earlier while not bloating the pot further.

It didn’t take a genius to figure that one out. In fact I’m too ashamed to post those hands here – they might make you laugh, but I’m not happy about it. However it did get me into the mood of delving into the analysis side of Hold’em Manager and see what it can give me.

I took two periods of my poker ‘career’. Both are NL10, and the first was from April to July last year where I could do no wrong and won $300 over 13,000 hands (21BB/100). The second was my latest 13,000 hands where I’ve won $90 at just under 7BB/100. Nothing wrong with 7BB/100 of course, and the first period looks like a big heater, but it’s still worth a comparison to see if there’s a significant difference somewhere.

I pasted the comparison into a single big image – 21BB/100 on left, latest hands on right;

The first set of boxes is my opening range UTG, MP and CO. I’m kinda pleased with this – I knew that my game has both loosened up and become more aggressive and I was worried that my range had actually become completely wild. It looks fairly well controlled though, and both periods show that I stick to my ranges very solidly (I have no concerns about the lack of balance – what’s the point at NL10 when I rarely play anyone for more than a few hundred hands! That’s also why I’m not worried about publishing it here either, it’s not as if my screen name is meteoric either). As expected my range has widened a bit, mainly at the top end although I’ve also included more suited connectors. The one funny extra is 72o – this is because Ultimate Bet has 72 side bet tables, and it’s worth a quick 3bet or flop cbet with 72o just for this side bet. (Edit – at least, it doesn’t look like it’s gone wild to me, but then I’ve little to compare against. Maybe I shouldn’t loosen up my early position as much as that?)

The rest of the tables compare various situations such as flopped hands, showdown hands and positional stats. Since 13k hands isn’t a huge sample I’ve tried to pinpoint only those areas where the numbers are extremely different. So, from bottom upwards (sorry, that’s just the way they were pasted);

Positional stats at the bottom aren’t much different, and that doesn’t surprise me. It’s been a while since I really came to understand the power of position, and I don’t think I’m spewing too much by playing OOP in the wrong situations.

The flopped hands shows one big anomaly. When I hit a top pair with weak kicker (and no draw), last year I lost about $100 (it’s not too surprising that this is a losing hand, it could easily be out paired on later streets and obviously out-kicked) – the later session though I’ve lost $343 though!  It’s the biggest difference in that table, so I need to see what I’m doing differently. I’m probably just playing them too aggressively and not controlling the pot enough. There are probably two situations – ace with weak kicker, and a low top pair (for instance, 9′s on a 923 board). I need to see which is the one I’m messing up. It’s probably more likely to be the aces I think.

Edit – I’ve just realised this is TPWK or worse, so this is including high card hands. I need to dig a bit deeper. It wouldn’t surprise me that I’m now floating overcards too much…

The river made hands seems to suggest that the first session did owe a lot to being a heater – I seem to make a lot more big hands then than lately. Not much I can do about that, unless of course I’m folding too early too often now. Kindof doubt that though.

Groupings suggest big aces have suffered the most lately. I’m putting this one down to variance too – there are a lot of AK pots which become flips, and so a slight shift in luck can result in a large monetary swing.

So final conclusion – top pair weak kicker = my achilles heel. Need to look into this some more…

2009

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

The holiday season hasn’t been kind to me – in the second half of December I’ve thrown away $150. A lot of it was literally thrown away too. In a recent session I discovered that turning up the aggression slightly was working well – one move in particular where you’re out of position and it’s the kind of flop you’d cbet (dry board, single A or K on it), so you check and let your opponent do the cbet, and then you raise. Previously I’d call, and lead the turn, but obviously this has the downside of giving another card. So the flop check-raise was proving successful, and then I watched an awesome video on being a LAG. This unfortunately had the effect of me spewing $40 in a few hundred hands!

I think the differences between the session where the aggro worked and the one where I spewed were;

a) First session I’d already played for a while, and hadn’t shown myself to be anything out of the ordinary, while the second session I sat down and started firing away. Any idiot could put down as a aggrotard, and this is what happened (my check-raise was reraised every time just about).
b) I picked my spots more carefully the first time. I had got to know the players at the tables, and was able to pick and choose when to push harder. The second session I’d just started, and was basically trying to bully complete unknowns.
c) The second session I didn’t back down. I often continued against those players who pushed back at my 3bets. Consequently I ran into AA several times quite quickly. At one point I had to three barrel bluff, and the final river push finally made the guy fold, but how stupid is that! It worked once, but I don’t think it was a profitable thing to do…

So anyway, 2010 I will stop being an idiot. I’m still bankrolled for nl10, but only 10 buy-ins above the move down point – if I don’t even out I’ll be back at NL5 by February. However, you’ve got to experiment with your game I believe, so I don’t feel too bad (it’s not as if I’m going to turn pro any time soon).

Ok, onto the 2009 review;

Cash:

Tourney:

Well, it’s in the black! :-) (the $40 lost yesterday was 2010, so close thing to ruining the year’s results, lol).

The New Year, 2009
This time last year I’d dropped right down to NL2 – most of my game up to that point had been NL10 at Full Tilt (which was their lowest stakes at that time), and it hadn’t been going very well. So I moved to Pokerstars and dropped down, first to NL5 and then to NL2 as I continued to lose.

The Redeposit – April
In April I finally lost my entire account. I redeposited, and for some reason known only to myself at the time I went back to NL10. I then had a massive heater, gaining $350 in 20k hands. How that happened I’ve no idea! I should go back and look at those hands in detail, but as far as I can remember I was very very lucky – PokerTracker all-in performance says $120 over expected value at its peak.

The Cash Out – July
Inevitably the heater ran out, and I lost a bunch of $$$ pretty quickly. I think I’d upped the number of tables I was playing, plus overconfidence, and that led to much spewage. As it came crashing down a personal credit card problem suddenly arose and I had to withdraw my entire roll to pay for it. In hindsight this was actually a useful thing to happen to me. Firstly, it showed the kindness of friends as they immediately transferred to me a little bit of spare cash to keep playing. Secondly it made me decide to follow bankroll management properly. Up until that point I’d play NL10 if I had over $100 in my account (or over only $50 sometimes). Starting from $30 with the knowledge that I wouldn’t be able to redeposit in the next couple of months really made sure I did the right thing to avoid going busto again.

The Grind
So I returned to NL2 again. This time my game was much stronger and I rapidly built up enough to move to NL5. I carried on playing well and clipped $200 to move into NL10. I then lost a few buy-ins, and moved back down. Ground up, bust down. I did this 3 times (the three peaks at 41k, 51k and 65k hands). I suddenly realised I was doing the bankroll management slightly wrong – I had a single threshold of $200 where I moved either up or down. What I needed to do was set the move-up threshold higher than the move down one (ie $250 to move up, $200 to move down). This way I’d have a 5 buy-in margin to lose before having to move down.

The Donkament Win – November
I was within $20 of the $250 threshold, and it was taking ages (it says $60 on that graph, but I was also getting rakeback and bonuses which aren’t shown on the graph). It was November now, and I seemed to be on the most miserable downswing ever – no big spews, but not a single +ve session for ages and ages. Then one Sunday I was messing around playing some MTTs (as you can see from the graph above, I don’t tourney much), and suddenly went deep in a $2 180 man SNG. I walked away with $70 – I was finally in NL10 territory again.

The Final Fall
I seemed to be playing well and built my roll up to $450. It didn’t feel like a heater this time, and I felt confident that I was winning appropriate hands rather than sucking out. I decided to look closer at Rakeback and see which site was the best for me, and so I split my roll amongst 4 sites – Full Tilt, PokerStars, Ultimate Bet and Party Poker. The difference between the sites was amazing – at NL10 UB and PP was full of limpers who’d try to see every street, while FT and PS still had its usual compliment of 2p2 players. Despite this I’ve failed to profit from them, and even worse seemed to have spewed a ton of money.

Final Roundup
So what’s the roundup of the year? I have to be honest with myself and say I’m not very good at poker. Almost 100k hands, and still being buffeted around by variance and barely keeping above the rake. In fact since my chart shows only +$44 profit, it’s obvious my entire roll ($350 at end of 2009) is made entirely of rakeback and bonuses.

Is that a big problem? I guess not as I still enjoy playing. I still enjoy the challenge of learning a game where it’s clear that gaining knowledge and experience will lift you through the ranks. The frustration is coming from seeing the stakes I play as a goal in itself.

So my resolution for 2010 is to let go of the idea that I’m not a winning player if I can’t ascend rapidly up the stakes. I will play poker at the stakes my bankroll allows, and concentrate on being the best player I can for those stakes. I guess ascending graphs of $$$ won will show whether I’m succeeding, although for me it’ll be how I achieved it that’ll be more important…

Stealing Blinds

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

I’ve probably blogged on this a load of times, but it’s always worth a brag. I was watching Pokey’s microstakes video which is a bit dated but still worth a view. He steals using minraises from the button which TBH isn’t that good at microstakes – limpers are quite likely to go that extra blind since it’s no biggy for them and they love to see the flop. At higher stakes I can imagine it’s fine as most people understand position enough to fold, and keeping the price of stealing that low pretty much guarantees it’s profitable.

Anyway, I decided to do a quick check on PokerTracker to see if my stealing is going ok – I’m a relentless blind stealer and even a constant 3bet defender won’t put me off (especially as all it takes is the odd decent hand against a manic 3betting blind to make it super profitable). Here are the results since April, filtered for stealing opportunities where I raised;

Since I rarely decide not to steal (if both blinds are 64 vpip types I might not, or against a manic 3bettor I admit I do tighten up a bit), it’s obvious that stealing pays – 39BB/100!! It’s almost worth just stealing and not playing any other hands (apart from that being insanely dull).

Position stats;

Position 1 is cutoff, and it’s always worth watching out for that ultratight player on your left who lets you steal through the button – extremely worth it in fact, you can see from the positional stats that it’s a higher BB/hand rate. Mainly this is because the button is just so obviously a stealing position that blinds give it a lot less credit than they should, while the CO is seen as a regular position and will respect your raise ;-) . I’m not a big fan of stealing from the small blind though – you’re generally only gaining one big blind while risking three and you’re OOP if called. Not a big enough deal to make a fuss about…

Pulling Back, Again

Sunday, December 27th, 2009

This seems to happen on a regular basis – I play well, then things seem to deteriorate, and finally I’m forced to take a good long look at how I’m playing.

The problem is that I know the basics, and when thinking straight can apply them well (including postflop). Once I start winning I start feeling bulletproof and play back at hands which I should just be folding. A few fancy plays go my way and I’m trying to win every pot going. Of course it doesn’t end well…

This month started with a few huge hands that went my way and gave me a 7 buy-in headstart. It took losing every penny of that plus a bit more before I realised I had to take a step back and see that I was being an idiot.

So today I folded when I was obviously beat, and didn’t float all those missed flops. It was a bit swingy, but came out up in the end;

Even nicer, this was on Ultimate Bet where my account had been seriously depleted. This put it back to a reasonable amount where I could multitable without worrying about the dreaded ‘you have insufficient funds’ popup when trying to reload. If my next post has a similar graph then it looks like I’m back on track.

As an aside, Yegor suggested playing limit hold’em. Such a weird game! While the blinds were $0.05/$0.10 the swings were tiny and similar to NL2 – no wonder bankroll management is much lower for limit compared to no limit. It was also a struggle against draws – getting AA preflop was always a minefield as you try to build a pot while watching each street conspire to give your opponent that straight with his 67o.

Compared to NLHE, limit hold’em is allegedly much lower in variance while the contribution from the player’s skill is less (pot odds become a bigger factor than bluffs). Possibly that might be a plus point at microstakes though. Also it may have less of the internet generation of players (ie more players coming from live games and less from 2p2), which might be useful too. I’m not sure how much effort I want to put into it though, but possibly more than PLO – I’m coming to hate variance…


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