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I’m a Losing Player

Sunday, May 29th, 2011

I’m going to have to redeposit again. This is so frustrating, although financially not a big deal – over my lifetime of online poker I’m now into the red and have lost about $130. That’s not a lot for 5 years of ‘entertainment’ – I’ve spent far more on shorter lasting and more trivial pasttimes. But it’s frustrating that my bankroll isn’t self-sustaining, even with proper bankroll management.

This year’s Rush 5nl looks like;

Somehow my losses are exactly equal to the rake I’ve paid. So it really has been 50/50 all the way, with Full Tilt being the only winner thanks to Rake.

Which brings me to my other frustration – Leak Buster has my leaks as pretty much just W$SD (won $ at showdown) being too low. Every other stat is smack on target, even WTSD% (percentage went to showdown). Basically I’m showing down the same amount of hands as a winning player, except my hands are losing more than theirs.

So Leak Buster’s final analysis – I need to run better? Who knows…

Anyway, with the redeposit I’m going to switch games (again). I’m going to drop Rush and go back to regular table games, with the aim to work on my player reading skills. So basically trying to understand player types and how to exploit them, which isn’t really possible on nl5 Rush (too many players, not enough time to build proper stats on them, with position on you constantly changing). It’ll have that double edged benefit of reduced volume though (slower to throw money away, but less visibility of progress through variance).

I’m going to try and deposit on Carbon (Merge network), but they’re having issues with so many players moving to their site and attempts so far have failed. So back to Full Tilt possibly if it fails again.

Up, Not Down

Monday, May 9th, 2011

Things seem to be going well for a change;

I feel pretty good as well – obviously nl5 is not the most challenging of levels, but I actually believe that I properly outplayed them and deserved every penny. The last 1k of that is nl10, and that’s going nicely too (a lot less passive, but they’re still moronic).

All I need to do now is not drift and put some volume in. Stick to the plan, keep a level head etc. I’ve got a lot of catching up to do since everyone else I know is splashing around nl25 – nl100 now, but it’s not a big deal. I’m still learning the game…

Swongs – Wrong Place, Wrong Time

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

I still don’t know if I suck at poker, or if I take swings far too personally. I redeposited on Full Tilt to take advantage of the bonus they’re offering at the moment, and decided to nl10 Rush it to have some chance of clearing it.

Didn’t go so well;

I did clear $5 of the bonus during that disaster though!

Everything I did seemed to meet some kind of resistance – flop cbet success only 45%, 3bets all over the place, and generally everything was awful.

I looked back over the hands, and of course there were some terrible ones – usually 3 barrel bluffs, but not too much that I should be ashamed of.

So I dropped down in stakes just to stop the bleed, and gave up on the bonus.

Instantly there was a difference – my cbets were working! They folded to my steals, they folded to my 3bet defending in the blinds, they even started paying off the odd hand or two;

Flop cbet success now at a reasonable 60%.

Small sample size (in both cases really), but I can’t believe nl5 should be so different to nl10. Surely they should be more or less the same?

Either there IS a difference, and everyone’s solid at nl10 (!?!), or I experienced a bad downswing – my opponents really did just ‘have it’ each and every time.

I also can’t believe I’m still writing about these nanostakes, but maybe understanding these swings is part of the learning process. I’ve never put in large amounts of volume, and over-reacting to swings in the BR like this has probably not been too healthy. Never mind, I’ll just enjoy the game for being a game for now…

LeakBustin’

Saturday, March 12th, 2011

Knocked out the last 2k hands this morning and did the leakbuster analysis again (not that I’m expecting a change, but just for curiosity’s sake). The session this morning was pretty bad – I started out getting deep and then calling off some really dubious TP type hands (off course losing). I pulled some of it back with hands that won more than they deserved (over pair 3 way against a 2pair and the board pairing just in the right place – hate it when that happens against me, but a relief this way round!). Things generally went worse and I continued to make some really bad river calls – another example was a TKA board with the villain calling against some strong bets (I had a TTT set) – he made a massive overbet on river and it was a spot I just knew he wasn’t bluffing in. So I paid off his QJ of course…

So ended the session some 5 buy-ins down, which is pretty shocking (although not expensive at nl5). Not all the hands were bad call-downs, I was running into a lot of sets & 2pairs, although most likely I was also overvalueing my TP hands. It’s one thing seeing your leak, it’s another applying yourself to patch it :-(

Anyway, Leakbuster says;

River aggression too high and going to showdown too light & too often. The SB reraise steal is not something I’m worried about (I’m actually showing a profit from the SB which is pretty cool). If anything I’m losing too much from the BB, but Leakbuster doesn’t seem to think so.

However my river agg% is too low, which is counter to the W$SD% & WTSD stats? So confused there, although I’m definitely making very dubious calls on the river against obviously made hands. I should just concentrate on this I think…

LeakBuster

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

In the last post I mentioned I was playing a bit of 6max for a change. At that point it was going well, mainly because I was two tabling, taking it slowly and concentrating on reads on opponents. Cake doesn’t allow a HUD, so it was interesting to see how much I could keep track of. Two tables was definitely the limit – I tried three and any attempts to make reads on the 15 opponents went completely out of the window.

My winrate also nose-dived, which was then further compounded by a quick go on Rush which of course also crashed. I returned to two tables on Cake, and then had one of my worst sessions ever (in bb, had worse in $$$). I spewed a bunch of stacks, and then ran some more stacks into better hands, and it just kept going. In the end I’d lost 7 buy-ins in just over an hour. To make it extra humiliating, the results charts was a straight diagonal line from top left to bottom right – this wasn’t a winning session ruined by some lost stacks, this was pure fishbowl territory :-(

My game is clearly a disaster. I might have learnt a lot about poker, and played a lot of hands, but I’m doing it wrong. Very wrong.

Yegor suggested LeakBuster (is he the only one who suggests anything to me around here?), and we had a play with the trial version and it looked useful. It analyses your stats from HEM, and points out areas where you’re deviating from what’s commonly held to be sensible. The trial version pointed out a few things, but I needed to buy it ($50) to get the full functionality. Since I’d just spewed more than that in an hour, the price didn’t look too bad.

I’m aware these are just stats though – I saw a quote on 2p2 that was made the point perfectly; ‘Solid poker makes good stats, solid stats doesn’t make good poker’

If I’m going to make this program work for me, I’ll need to be careful to understand how to change my game in response to what it’s telling me. I need to change my strategy, which will change the stats, not play to change the stats directly.

Unfortunately it was telling me a lot! Everything was out of whack one way or another. It was almost overwhelming and not clear what to tackle first. The big leak that seemed to be costing me money was W$SD & WTSD% – I was seeing showdowns too often, and usually with not the best hand. I watched their video on calling light, but it didn’t really help (combinatrics!).

Then I realised that it was also telling me these things;

a) My opening range was poor – too loose and too many problem hands.
b) I wasn’t cbetting enough
c) I wasn’t folding after being raised on the flop
d) I wasn’t folding to flop cbets enough
e) I was calling 3bets too light.

If I corrected all these actions, then that would mean more folding during the hand, and would reduce my WTSD%. Which would then make my showdowns a bit more ‘quality’, and improve the W$SD.

So I’ve gone right back to basics, and created (shock horror) a starting hand chart! I then dived into some nl5 Rush and held myself to that chart, cbet loads more, folded loads more, and generally concentrated like mad on those 5 points above.

It was tricky to remember other elements of the game while concentrating on those key points – my defending of the blinds virtually disappeared (not a big problem in the short term though), and I found myself only open-raising or folding pre (PP’s being the only hand I called to earlier bet). I managed 500 hands (didn’t start until late), and it was reasonably succesful. Perhaps two hands I should really have let go (JJ overpair calling down to see QQ was one), plus a couple of bad beats (QJ 2pair seeing AA all-in on flop, turn & river were both 5). My WTSD% stat improved, but sample size is way too small. I’m going to play sets of 10k hands and then re-analyse with leakbuster. Might even blog my progress if it’s not too dull :-)

2009

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

The holiday season hasn’t been kind to me – in the second half of December I’ve thrown away $150. A lot of it was literally thrown away too. In a recent session I discovered that turning up the aggression slightly was working well – one move in particular where you’re out of position and it’s the kind of flop you’d cbet (dry board, single A or K on it), so you check and let your opponent do the cbet, and then you raise. Previously I’d call, and lead the turn, but obviously this has the downside of giving another card. So the flop check-raise was proving successful, and then I watched an awesome video on being a LAG. This unfortunately had the effect of me spewing $40 in a few hundred hands!

I think the differences between the session where the aggro worked and the one where I spewed were;

a) First session I’d already played for a while, and hadn’t shown myself to be anything out of the ordinary, while the second session I sat down and started firing away. Any idiot could put down as a aggrotard, and this is what happened (my check-raise was reraised every time just about).
b) I picked my spots more carefully the first time. I had got to know the players at the tables, and was able to pick and choose when to push harder. The second session I’d just started, and was basically trying to bully complete unknowns.
c) The second session I didn’t back down. I often continued against those players who pushed back at my 3bets. Consequently I ran into AA several times quite quickly. At one point I had to three barrel bluff, and the final river push finally made the guy fold, but how stupid is that! It worked once, but I don’t think it was a profitable thing to do…

So anyway, 2010 I will stop being an idiot. I’m still bankrolled for nl10, but only 10 buy-ins above the move down point – if I don’t even out I’ll be back at NL5 by February. However, you’ve got to experiment with your game I believe, so I don’t feel too bad (it’s not as if I’m going to turn pro any time soon).

Ok, onto the 2009 review;

Cash:

Tourney:

Well, it’s in the black! :-) (the $40 lost yesterday was 2010, so close thing to ruining the year’s results, lol).

The New Year, 2009
This time last year I’d dropped right down to NL2 – most of my game up to that point had been NL10 at Full Tilt (which was their lowest stakes at that time), and it hadn’t been going very well. So I moved to Pokerstars and dropped down, first to NL5 and then to NL2 as I continued to lose.

The Redeposit – April
In April I finally lost my entire account. I redeposited, and for some reason known only to myself at the time I went back to NL10. I then had a massive heater, gaining $350 in 20k hands. How that happened I’ve no idea! I should go back and look at those hands in detail, but as far as I can remember I was very very lucky – PokerTracker all-in performance says $120 over expected value at its peak.

The Cash Out – July
Inevitably the heater ran out, and I lost a bunch of $$$ pretty quickly. I think I’d upped the number of tables I was playing, plus overconfidence, and that led to much spewage. As it came crashing down a personal credit card problem suddenly arose and I had to withdraw my entire roll to pay for it. In hindsight this was actually a useful thing to happen to me. Firstly, it showed the kindness of friends as they immediately transferred to me a little bit of spare cash to keep playing. Secondly it made me decide to follow bankroll management properly. Up until that point I’d play NL10 if I had over $100 in my account (or over only $50 sometimes). Starting from $30 with the knowledge that I wouldn’t be able to redeposit in the next couple of months really made sure I did the right thing to avoid going busto again.

The Grind
So I returned to NL2 again. This time my game was much stronger and I rapidly built up enough to move to NL5. I carried on playing well and clipped $200 to move into NL10. I then lost a few buy-ins, and moved back down. Ground up, bust down. I did this 3 times (the three peaks at 41k, 51k and 65k hands). I suddenly realised I was doing the bankroll management slightly wrong – I had a single threshold of $200 where I moved either up or down. What I needed to do was set the move-up threshold higher than the move down one (ie $250 to move up, $200 to move down). This way I’d have a 5 buy-in margin to lose before having to move down.

The Donkament Win – November
I was within $20 of the $250 threshold, and it was taking ages (it says $60 on that graph, but I was also getting rakeback and bonuses which aren’t shown on the graph). It was November now, and I seemed to be on the most miserable downswing ever – no big spews, but not a single +ve session for ages and ages. Then one Sunday I was messing around playing some MTTs (as you can see from the graph above, I don’t tourney much), and suddenly went deep in a $2 180 man SNG. I walked away with $70 – I was finally in NL10 territory again.

The Final Fall
I seemed to be playing well and built my roll up to $450. It didn’t feel like a heater this time, and I felt confident that I was winning appropriate hands rather than sucking out. I decided to look closer at Rakeback and see which site was the best for me, and so I split my roll amongst 4 sites – Full Tilt, PokerStars, Ultimate Bet and Party Poker. The difference between the sites was amazing – at NL10 UB and PP was full of limpers who’d try to see every street, while FT and PS still had its usual compliment of 2p2 players. Despite this I’ve failed to profit from them, and even worse seemed to have spewed a ton of money.

Final Roundup
So what’s the roundup of the year? I have to be honest with myself and say I’m not very good at poker. Almost 100k hands, and still being buffeted around by variance and barely keeping above the rake. In fact since my chart shows only +$44 profit, it’s obvious my entire roll ($350 at end of 2009) is made entirely of rakeback and bonuses.

Is that a big problem? I guess not as I still enjoy playing. I still enjoy the challenge of learning a game where it’s clear that gaining knowledge and experience will lift you through the ranks. The frustration is coming from seeing the stakes I play as a goal in itself.

So my resolution for 2010 is to let go of the idea that I’m not a winning player if I can’t ascend rapidly up the stakes. I will play poker at the stakes my bankroll allows, and concentrate on being the best player I can for those stakes. I guess ascending graphs of $$$ won will show whether I’m succeeding, although for me it’ll be how I achieved it that’ll be more important…

Stealing Blinds

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

I’ve probably blogged on this a load of times, but it’s always worth a brag. I was watching Pokey’s microstakes video which is a bit dated but still worth a view. He steals using minraises from the button which TBH isn’t that good at microstakes – limpers are quite likely to go that extra blind since it’s no biggy for them and they love to see the flop. At higher stakes I can imagine it’s fine as most people understand position enough to fold, and keeping the price of stealing that low pretty much guarantees it’s profitable.

Anyway, I decided to do a quick check on PokerTracker to see if my stealing is going ok – I’m a relentless blind stealer and even a constant 3bet defender won’t put me off (especially as all it takes is the odd decent hand against a manic 3betting blind to make it super profitable). Here are the results since April, filtered for stealing opportunities where I raised;

Since I rarely decide not to steal (if both blinds are 64 vpip types I might not, or against a manic 3bettor I admit I do tighten up a bit), it’s obvious that stealing pays – 39BB/100!! It’s almost worth just stealing and not playing any other hands (apart from that being insanely dull).

Position stats;

Position 1 is cutoff, and it’s always worth watching out for that ultratight player on your left who lets you steal through the button – extremely worth it in fact, you can see from the positional stats that it’s a higher BB/hand rate. Mainly this is because the button is just so obviously a stealing position that blinds give it a lot less credit than they should, while the CO is seen as a regular position and will respect your raise ;-) . I’m not a big fan of stealing from the small blind though – you’re generally only gaining one big blind while risking three and you’re OOP if called. Not a big enough deal to make a fuss about…


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