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November Results

Saturday, November 28th, 2009

A day or two early, but I’ll update tomorrow night if I get a result. I wanted to post today partly because it’s been a great month and I just wanted to brag, but I’ve also hit the milestone of 100k hands. To have played 100k hands is pretty awesome, but the results aren’t so hot so I’ll talk about November’s results first :-)

Results from cash games has been ok, mainly because I’ve moved back to NL10;

Nov09

Those nasty sharp swings in the middle was my experiment at shortstacking NL50 to see how quickly I could clear a bonus. I was lucky to get away with only a mild loss of $14 and it was clearly not a good idea to push a bonus outside your bankroll. The 2nd half of that chart is NL10, and the monetary boost is clear to see. Still very swingy though – I half wish I had a more consistent style, but on the other hand rollercoasters are a lot more fun.

The big result was the $2 180man tourney win which boosted the bankroll by $70, giving a total  of $100 wins in tournament results.

Bonuses came to $20 (Full Tilt holiday bonus – hopefully I’ll clear at least another $20 before it expires), and about $18 in rakeback. So final total of $180 for November – a huge boost to the bankroll and long overdue. Tomorrow I’ve those MTTs as well, and just getting to the cash in the Turbo Takedown will be about $70, so as long as I can get a result I’ll be happy. I’m not holding my breath though, my tournament success is random at best.

So, on to the big lifetime result;

100kHands

Quite disapointing to have been playing poker for so long and not really getting the hang of nanostakes. I think I’m back on track again, and my NL10 progress should be similar to that early rise (perhaps not so steep – it was a heater on the whole). I’m confident that from now on it’s just a matter of time & grinding to get to NL25 & NL50.

Also the chart doesn’t really reflect my true bankroll – it doesn’t include tournament results, bonuses or Rakeback – plus it only goes back to July 2008, and I’ve played longer than that. In reality I’ve probably redeposited about 4 times ($250 or so), then that heater after which I cashed out $170, and then from $30 (donated by S1ndr0me and Yegor!) rebuilt my account to $330. I suspect that means I’m actually in the black when it comes to true lifetime poker results, but I’ve no proof…

Attempts at Clearing the Bonus

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

So I opened up eight tables NL50 tables, buying in at 20bb ($10). I’d worked out that 6 max is actually more effective than full ring – since the rake is divided by the number of players dealt into the hand then the total Rake you acquire per orbit is the same no matter whether it’s 6 or 9 players. The difference is though that 6 max you acquire that rake in 6 hands, while in full ring it takes 9 hands, so clearing the bonus takes a 1/3 less hands in 6max.

The downside is that it’s harder to multitable 6max since your turn comes around so much quicker, but 8 is still within my capability (at least for this SSS stuff where my VP$IP plummets to 15%).

So I started clicking away, and it quickly became obvious that this was going to be a high variance thing and I was way out of my bankroll comfort zone. I was immediately surprised how readily people called your shoves, even when you hadn’t entered a pot for the last 30 hands. I started out taking as many pots as I lost, but then a few went awry and I started to doubt what I was doing. So I stopped after only 20 minutes.

End result was a loss of only $14 which was remarkably good considering how much luck was involved – ridiculously this was actually offset by an accident when I was setting things up – I had installed Windows 7 the day before and Full Tilt still had its default settings. So I turned on autorebuy but messed up the 20bb setting, which resulted in me sitting at a table with a full $50 stack! I was folded to on the BB, and then in the button had KQs so thought I’d at least see the flop. I then took it down on a cbet, netting me $10! (I then quickly left the table!). So net result -$4 I guess :-) PokerTracker all-in ev claimed I was $50 under ev, but I think  it got confused by a threeway pot where I had QQ and so did one of the opponents…

On checking the bonus I’d cleared a few more dollars and it seemed that it matched up to general opinion that it’d take 7000 hands at NL50 to clear $100. I realised that playing 7k high variance hands just isn’t the way to clear a bonus…

So I switched back to my regular 4 tables of 100bb buy-in 6 max, now at NL10. After an hour and 380 hands I’d won about $30, and this only went to confirm that trying to play 7000 break-even hands just to clear $100 is a very stupid thing to do. Best to just accept the bonus and then ignore it – anything you clear is literally just a bonus!

I then had a break and came back for another 300 hands, but didn’t really improve much (all I achieved was halving the BB/100);

22Nov09N10

Clearing Bonuses at NL2, NL5, NL10 etc

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Full Tilt have just given a $100 promotion as many of you probably know. However even though I’ve moved back to NL10 it’s going to be heavy going to get all that monies.

The problem is that these microstakes just don’t generate enough frequent player points to clear the bonus effectively. For instance Last night I had an hour long session at NL10 on 3 tables – this cleared about $2 of the bonus. I’ve a month to clear $100 – not going to happen! Fortunately it comes in $10 payments so I should clear some of it (maybe half?), but it’s frustrating to see that free money just out of reach.

This is where a happy coincidence of my rakeback research and some correspondence with S1ndr0me this morning comes together for a possible solution;

Clearing the bonus is linked to frequent player points (or Full Tilt Points), which are 1 point for every $1 paid in rake. Full Tilt uses the dealt method for Rake (see my last post), so you don’t actually have to put any money in the pot to be attributed with that rake, you just have to have the cards dealt to you.

So, if you sat at a higher stakes full ring table and played super tight (QQ+), you’d be clearing that bonus far faster than if you played your normal 6max manic shove fest at NL5. To make it cost effective though, you have to avoid losing too many blinds, otherwise your losses will be more than the bonus you’re trying to clear.

So what would it take to be worthwhile. It has to be a ‘dealt method’ rake site obviously. You obviously have to be absolutely self-controlled. Playing hands out of your bankroll is going to be suicidal – the aim of this exercise is to be dealt lots of hand and lose nothing, not to win $$$. The loss will come from two things – losing your blinds, and losing the hands you do play. The latter is usual shortstack strategy – you’ll only be playing premiums like QQ+, which will at least win you the blinds. The former is not so easy since as a short stack you’ll have almost no fold equity and so stealing from late position isn’t going to be so easy. That means it’s possible to have a stack that’s *too* small. Playing above your bankroll the big drain will be the blinds, so it’s a fine balance between a safe stack size and the gain from the rake. The usual 20bb may be enough, but it’ll be the absolute minimum. However increasing it to improve your fold equity also increases your losses when those premo hands get sucked out on.

To sum up the strategy, table select the tables with the highest average pot. It has to be full ring obviously (Edit: not so obvious actually – the dealt rake is split between the players, so a FR player has 1/9 of the rake in a pot, while a 6max player has 1/6 – the balance comes down to loss due to blinds versus gain from less players. I’ll have to think about this). I’m undecided as to whether it should be 20bb or 50bb buy-ins – I’ll need to experiment as to whether 20bb has any stealing potential or not (possibly there’s a reason to pick the nittiest tables too, but not sure yet). SSS strategy has to be followed religiously, although I’d drop all unpaired hands other than AK, and PP under TT – having said that some risks would have to be taken to steal blinds from the button (actually CO maybe more effective since everyone knows the BTN is on a steal). Equally leaving the table on doubling up is also mandatory.

All that’s left is to try it out. If it works on this Full Tilt holiday bonus then it may be worthwhile signing up at the other ‘dealt method’ sites (Cake does it I believe), and do a bit of early bonus whoring. While being at microstakes the boost this would give my BR would be far more meaningful than when I’m doing ‘standard’ bonus whoring at NL100+.

However, I did mentioned this to S1ndr0me, and he’s tried the short stack strategy on and off and doesn’t think it’s a good idea. I can see where he’s coming from since SSS is fairly high variance really. I’ll proceed with caution I guess…

Edit: for those landing here from Google, my results from trying it out are here.

Slow Month

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Not a lot of poker going on at the moment – my plate seems to be crammed with lots of other things that are getting in the way.

Admittedly there’s not much incentive though – my plans to move up when my account reached $250 has failed miserably since rather than increasing my $$$ I seem to be continually decreasing it. At the point I made that BR decision I was at $230 and it made plenty of sense to grind out that extra $20.

Instead it’s gone the other way and I’m down to $200. I made the mistake of reading one of those monthly results threads on 2p2, and naturally the only people showing their graphs were those who were happily climbing up. Depressing that my only increases to the BR have been through bonuses and rake, and my dismal play has now eroded even those gains.

Oh well. Need to play through this as they say. The difficult thing is knowing whether this is my fault or just variance. Or were my previous winning sessions my fault or just variance? I keep going back to PokerTracker to try and spot the problems, and it’s really hard to know just what’s going wrong. I suspect I should play more weakly (I think I’m tight enough), but it just feels so wrong!

Update: There’s a thread in the gossip section of 2p2 talking about who has the most meteoric rise in poker (a bit premature perhaps). A load of nits are going on about meteors not rising, which is the typical moron nittitude of many 2p2′ers, but it has made me realise my moniker is associated with things that crash and burn (well, burn and crash). Hmmm, don’t really have much to disagree with though…

Playing Well, But Not Building Bankroll

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Another low blog post week has gone by – I have been playing, but it’s been remarkably unexciting. The last three sessions have been particularly disappointing as I played well 99% of the time only to mess a couple of hands up in each making each come  out -ve.

The last session’s big bad hand probably wasn’t played badly if you go by pot odds though;

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($9.46)
CO ($5.20)
BTN ($11.32)
SB ($2.19)
BB ($2)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is UTG 7clubs poker card 8clubs poker card
Hero raises to $0.14, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.14, SB calls $0.12, 1 fold

Flop: 10diamonds poker card Jclubs poker card Kclubs poker card ($0.47, 3 players)
SB goes all-in $2.05, Hero calls $2.05, BTN goes all-in $11.18, Hero goes all-in $7.27

Turn: 2spades poker card ($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)

River: 6hearts poker card ($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $23.02
Hero shows
7clubs poker card 8clubs poker card
BTN shows
Jhearts poker card Kdiamonds poker card
SB shows
4hearts poker card Qhearts poker card

BTN wins $21.61 ( won +$10.29 )

Hero lost -$9.46
SB lost -$2.19

However, it was a big pot to gambool on. All the worse since the gamble didn’t pay off. It was clear that I had to hit that flush to win, since it was unlikely both the other players were on a draw (and even if they were it’s really unlikely I’d have had the highest card!). Even hitting the flush was probably not a guaranteed win either (even though it turned out neither were on a flush draw). So, lost 2 buy-ins at a stroke there :-(

There have been a couple of changes in my game lately, although more experimental than definite leak fixing. The first is donk betting. More often than not if in the situation where I could donk bet I do. Either I’ve missed the flop and the preflop raiser checked, in which case I bet as a bluff, or I’ve hit the flop and I bet for value. The betting as a bluff is working out I believe – at NL5 most checks from the villain is because they’ve missed the flop (I’m not expecting this to be the case >NL10 though – too many people understand the cbet). The donk betting for value though is starting to be uncertain – it seems common opinion is it’s better to check and wait for the turn, after all only better hands would call. On the other hand, a large percentage of players will call a flop bet (dismissing it as a cbet with air) and reevaluate on the turn. I’m still unsure what my line is with donk betting really – I wish it wasn’t called donk betting though, it seems overly disparaging for what could be a reasonable line (at what times though?).

Second change is more shoves with AK – if I open with AK and get 3bet I’ll shove, whereas before I’d call and wait to hit the flop before continuing. I checked PokerTracker and found that the fold equity in the shove outweighed the losses in the flip in coming up against a pair (ie let’s assume AK vs PP cancel out, leaving plenty of profit from AK vs AQ, AJ etc and 3betters who fold). However, last three sessions my flips have all gone the wrong way, so suffering a bit from variance there (btw, calling a shove with AK is a different kettle of fish, and generally I won’t unless I’ve 3bet leaving a small relative stack behind – too many shoves are KK+ and it doesn’t seem to be worth it).

So. Bankroll is at $220, with about $30 to come in rakeback. I’m annoyed that I haven’t got to $250 from the cards themselves, but $250 is $250, and I’ll be going to NL10 as soon as that Rakeback arrives. Actually I’m also annoyed that $50 of that $220 was the Take 2 bonus, so it’s really not like I’ve played my way here :-( although filtering on my NL5 results does show a $180 win so far, and it’s only the NL10 that’s destroyed my earnings so far. Mixed feelings, but certainly not feeling that I’m beating the nanostakes game really.

All Quiet on the Poker Front

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

I’m afraid I haven’t played any poker since getting that NL10 kicking (well, almost – picked up $6 later that afternoon at NL5, but that’s it). I think making sure I played every day for the Take 2 promo, getting close to NL10 move up threshold again, and then getting beat back down has taken the wind out of my sails a bit. I’ll get going again soon I should think.

In the meantime I’ll babble randomly – Poker Shortcuts is working out really well for me. There have been a couple of misclicks where I was about to click elsewhere and a table suddenly pops up resulting in me clicking on the fold button. Nothing too drastic lost from that so far (a few PP’s preflop and a 2pair that was probably beat which maybe was a good thing), but going to have to be careful. I’m still a bit uncertain about the automatic betsizing, but warming to it – generally the size is pretty much what I want it. Sometimes it looks an odd amount though, like $0.67 or $0.53, but I’ve noticed some people commenting on the odd sizes and putting it down to bad play (why, I’ve no idea). If that’s the effect then it’s fine by me.

Despite my playing hiatus, I’ve come to the realisation that the only way to really win at this game is to play lots and lots of hands. I’ve been too concerned with the short term ups & downs, and need to put in the hours to see through the variance. I also need to do that to make the bankroll grow at a significant rate. Perhaps obvious really, but I was listening to a pokerroad podcast and the guy on it was asked for his most key advice – he said 3 things;

  • Follow proper bankroll management
  • Play lots of hands
  • Don’t ever withdraw

Sounds obvious and simple, except that it’s easier said than done. It all makes sense too – play lots of hands to reduce variance and build bankroll quicker, if you downswing move down in stakes to avoid destroying all that work, and don’t take any backward steps by withdrawing. Obviously you will want to withdraw at some point, but not if you want to keep moving up. If I hadn’t withdrew 3 months ago, I’d be almost at NL25 by now (um, unless it went downhill of course, which it probably would have). So, that’s my plan now.

ps congrats to Kevin on the microstakes msn chat group – he placed 1st in a $2 MTT for $200 the other day. No idea if he reads my blog, but nice win buddy…

Cake’s Doyles Room Added to Rakeback and Bonus Offers

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Doyle’s Room has been added to the list of offers. I’m afraid you can’t get rakeback if you already have a Cake network account though…


MeteoricPoker rakeback

Cellsino Poker

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