<< Blog Home



Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

LeakBuster

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

In the last post I mentioned I was playing a bit of 6max for a change. At that point it was going well, mainly because I was two tabling, taking it slowly and concentrating on reads on opponents. Cake doesn’t allow a HUD, so it was interesting to see how much I could keep track of. Two tables was definitely the limit – I tried three and any attempts to make reads on the 15 opponents went completely out of the window.

My winrate also nose-dived, which was then further compounded by a quick go on Rush which of course also crashed. I returned to two tables on Cake, and then had one of my worst sessions ever (in bb, had worse in $$$). I spewed a bunch of stacks, and then ran some more stacks into better hands, and it just kept going. In the end I’d lost 7 buy-ins in just over an hour. To make it extra humiliating, the results charts was a straight diagonal line from top left to bottom right – this wasn’t a winning session ruined by some lost stacks, this was pure fishbowl territory :-(

My game is clearly a disaster. I might have learnt a lot about poker, and played a lot of hands, but I’m doing it wrong. Very wrong.

Yegor suggested LeakBuster (is he the only one who suggests anything to me around here?), and we had a play with the trial version and it looked useful. It analyses your stats from HEM, and points out areas where you’re deviating from what’s commonly held to be sensible. The trial version pointed out a few things, but I needed to buy it ($50) to get the full functionality. Since I’d just spewed more than that in an hour, the price didn’t look too bad.

I’m aware these are just stats though – I saw a quote on 2p2 that was made the point perfectly; ‘Solid poker makes good stats, solid stats doesn’t make good poker’

If I’m going to make this program work for me, I’ll need to be careful to understand how to change my game in response to what it’s telling me. I need to change my strategy, which will change the stats, not play to change the stats directly.

Unfortunately it was telling me a lot! Everything was out of whack one way or another. It was almost overwhelming and not clear what to tackle first. The big leak that seemed to be costing me money was W$SD & WTSD% – I was seeing showdowns too often, and usually with not the best hand. I watched their video on calling light, but it didn’t really help (combinatrics!).

Then I realised that it was also telling me these things;

a) My opening range was poor – too loose and too many problem hands.
b) I wasn’t cbetting enough
c) I wasn’t folding after being raised on the flop
d) I wasn’t folding to flop cbets enough
e) I was calling 3bets too light.

If I corrected all these actions, then that would mean more folding during the hand, and would reduce my WTSD%. Which would then make my showdowns a bit more ‘quality’, and improve the W$SD.

So I’ve gone right back to basics, and created (shock horror) a starting hand chart! I then dived into some nl5 Rush and held myself to that chart, cbet loads more, folded loads more, and generally concentrated like mad on those 5 points above.

It was tricky to remember other elements of the game while concentrating on those key points – my defending of the blinds virtually disappeared (not a big problem in the short term though), and I found myself only open-raising or folding pre (PP’s being the only hand I called to earlier bet). I managed 500 hands (didn’t start until late), and it was reasonably succesful. Perhaps two hands I should really have let go (JJ overpair calling down to see QQ was one), plus a couple of bad beats (QJ 2pair seeing AA all-in on flop, turn & river were both 5). My WTSD% stat improved, but sample size is way too small. I’m going to play sets of 10k hands and then re-analyse with leakbuster. Might even blog my progress if it’s not too dull :-)

Microstakes HU Cash

Friday, February 18th, 2011

So Yegor reminds me how expensive the rake is for nanostakes HU cash. I went to PTR and looked at the their Rake comparison page, which calculates the average rake per 100 hands from their database (rather than using the poker site’s arcane rake calculations). I came up with this table for the three sites that do HU less than nl50;


nl2 nl5 nl10 nl25 nl50
Cereus $ 0.62
1.85 3.00 5.00
bb 0.31
0.19 0.12 0.10
35.00%
0.20
0.12 0.08 0.07
Bodog Poker $
0.66 1.60 3.90 6.82
bb
0.13 0.16 0.16 0.14
28%?

0.10 0.12 0.11 0.10
Cake Poker $


2.87 5.00
bb


0.11 0.10
38.00%



0.07 0.06
iPoker $ 0.57 1.16 2.62 3.30 6.30
bb 0.29 0.23 0.26 0.13 0.13
30%?
0.20 0.16 0.18 0.09 0.09

I added a new column which converted their $ values for bb (I think? – probably got it wrong, but whatever), then the lowest values for each buy-in level is bolded. Finally I added another column which gave the bb reduced by my rakeback (albeit at my rate as an affiliate – drop a few points off that for the masses).

It looks like nl5 might be ok with Bodog, and then above that Cake looks good. nl2 is clearly a waste of time. The only thing about Bodog is that it’s not a regular rake sign-up, it has to be a ‘secret’ bonus offer I can offer through people already signed up with meteoricpoker.com and I haven’t figured out how to enable it yet (sooo professional!). I already have the Cake account though, so could just jump in at nl25. No HUD though which is a bit scary.

Levels

Saturday, January 15th, 2011

Guess I didn’t think the no HUD thing through entirely – HEM shows you mucked cards really nicely, plus you can see previous hands at a glance. I could use the Full Tilt replayer, but it’s a lot messier than HEM. So I turned HEM autoimport back on, although with a twinge of guilt. I want this hudless thing to work, so reckon I’ll change my HU HUD (that’s not a stutter) to minimum details – just player notes maybe.

Last week I played a couple of games against a good player – the first game was difficult, and he was clearly thinking much more than the average fool at the $10s. It went my way and I figured that while I had a small edge it might be good to rematch just for the experience. Apparently he was thinking exactly the same thing, except he thought he had the postflop edge. The second game was a complete disaster, so he was probably more right than I was :-)

We agreed to swap HH, and had a small email exchange talking about some of the hands. I figured out how to edit the HH files so that HEM would load both hole cards up. I was quite surprised at how much thought this guy put into his play – more than me I suspect. Also, although this might be just because of the hands we talked about, he seemed to think a lot more about what my thought processes were, while I was thinking more about how I was being perceived – that sounds like I’m outlevelling him, but it wasn’t really. It was more the case that he was evaluating how much value he could get out of me, while I was looking at how effectively I could bluff him.

And that last point could be a leak for me. I’m always working on the bluffs, making them and catching them. It appeals to me because it’s all about the player, rather than pot odds and getting thin value. Very satisfying when it’s working, very expensive when you get it wrong. If on the other hand you’re working on getting value, then it’s rarely expensive when you get it wrong – you just get less value than you hoped, or maybe at worst accidentally value town yourself when something was just a bit too thin.

Anyway, it was really interesting to be able to talk about those games with him. I wish it happened more often. To quote the level we talked about; ‘the only reason I called was that I knew you knew I pretty much can’t have a strong hand’ – which is awesome that we could even have a game where that came into play.

It’s awesome because today I’ve played people who do this;

No Limit Holdem Tournament
Pokerstars
2 Players

$10.00+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (940)
BB (2,060)

Blinds: 10/20

Pre-Flop: (30, 2 players) Hero is SB 3hearts poker card Aspades poker card
Hero raises to 60, BB calls 40

Flop: 9hearts poker card 10clubs poker card 2hearts poker card (120, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 60, BB calls 60

A lot of my cbets have been successful, so no reason to stop now. He calls this one though, so must have something. The board was quite wet so not totally surprising. I could have just checked back the A and let it go to showdown if no draws had come through, quite possibly this guy would let me do that.

Turn: Qdiamonds poker card (240, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 160, BB calls 160

ok, Q is kinda good, kinda bad – it made some of the straight draws, but is a good double barrel card for any 9′s, T’s and flush draws, so I reckon more good than bad. He calls again though. Either he’s really chasing hard, or has something already. I decide to shutdown regardless, even if the river is very blank.

River: 4diamonds poker card (560, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: 560
Hero shows high card Ace
3hearts poker card Aspades poker card
BB shows high card King
Kdiamonds poker card 5diamonds poker card

uh – he had King high? Hoped the gutshot he picked up on the turn might make good?

There’s no sense in that. You can’t play someone like this and say ‘if he’s calling there, then he’s thinking xxx’ etc. The easiest way to beat them seems to be to just chip away with small flop cbets, and get as much value as you can from strong hands. How exciting.

It wouldn’t be so bad if he hadn’t gone on to beat me as well (of course, lol).

Use The Force Luke

Friday, January 14th, 2011

ok, today I’m going to turn my HUD off. In fact I’m going to leave HEM off entirely, only importing hands after the session (or, if I was really zen, at the end of the month).

This probably stupid decision came after reading Samoleus’ well. He’s one of the old guard (well, 2004, so not Phil old, just not college drop out balla young) who has a ton of quality posts in the 2p2 archives, and was an early BBV I’ve made a million guy.

In the well he says;

‘I have never used a HUD in my life. I feel like it is too easy to use it as a substitute to paying attention and getting detailed reads. It’s kind of like having Cliff’s Notes: if you have them, it’s so tempting not to read the book. A HUD can’t provide you with information on how opponents are adjusting TO YOU specifically. ‘

Now besides the fact that he 15 tables 6max, it still makes sense. I’m often watching that F3B stat, thinking OMG 0%! when really we’ve only played 30 hands and I’ve 3bet once…

I’m also flicking to my win$ chart after every match thinking ‘it’s up!, ‘it’s down!’ etc.

No more! Time to feel the force…

2010

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Another decent day;

That puts me on the edge of being rolled for $20s. There’s a weird deja-vu as this is exactly what happened last christmas. I guess that means I should perhaps do my roundup of 2010 now;

January

2010 was the first year I really tried heads-up NLHE for the first time. I’d messed around with a few shootout MTTs but nothing with any thought behind it. Yegor told me to switch to husngs because he was printing money and had been saying how good they were for ages. He said try 50 microstakes matches and see if it works out.

Apparently it worked out :-) The 50 $5s went well enough, andI quickly jumped to the $10s. I immediately had a nice heater, which left me nicely rolled to try $20s.

February – May

The $20s were tricky, but somehow I managed to scrape enough to try some $30s. 4man shootouts in particular seemed to support my BR more than regular matches;

The nice BR gave me the opportunity to buy some coaching, pay for sites like sharkscope, and generally whimsical prop-bets (still hardly balla, but fun nevertheless). With a BR of $1000 I was marginally rolled for $50 games, and dipped my toes a couple of times.

May-July

Then it all went wrong;

Game after game was lost. I followed proper bankroll management and moved down as I past each threshold, but it didn’t ease off. Utterly miserable 3 months :-(

July-December

The rest of the year was a complete rethink of what had happened. I moved right down to $2 games so I could pound out game after game with relatively no impact on the remains of my bankroll. The hope was that I could really watch what I was doing to see if there had been any element of skill in my rise, or whether the whole thing is just variance in action.

The rethink worked, and I saw what I had done wrong. Putting it into practice hasn’t been easy though – hard to change the spots of an old dog.

Essentially my fundamentals are fairly solid – preflop I was raising appropriately (albeit with some 3bet leaks pointed out by Yegor), postflop I was getting value ok (not too hard at these stakes – bet,bet,bet!), while for bluffs my flop cbets and turn double barrels were ok too. What I was doing wrong though was bluffing in large pots and making poor hero calls. Forcing myself to stop doing this was a bit tricky – to see an idiot donk out with a PSB was like waving a red flag to me.

So this month I’ve been folding, and concentrating on the value bets. The results were fairly immediate, and even better the lost matches obviously showed the same hero calling leaks which reinforced my belief that I’ve worked out where it was going wrong. Now I need to keep trying to get the balance right and not let the bluff demon back in as I move up in stakes.

Coaching and Job Hunting

Saturday, September 25th, 2010

When my company told me I was no longer useful to them it was quarter past five in the afternoon, and fifteen minutes later I was out of the building with a carrier bag full of my stuff (biscuits mainly). I was on gardening leave!

My initial thought was disappointment that my plans for moving to Bristol or Cardiff were shot to hell now since I’ll never find a job over there within a month. But within hours of putting my CV out for Cambridge/London jobs I’d already got a couple of interviews lined up, and I began to think ‘Cool – a job in no time, and the rest of this gardening leave will be poker, tennis and daytime TV – bring it on!!!’.

However the phone carried on ringing, more telephone interviews, a bunch of coding tests, some face to face interviews and it turned out that this week has been non-stop, stressful, and virtually no poker!
Of course I shouldn’t be complaining, but it’s been really hard work (whiiine) – the coding tests have been quite challenging, phone call quickfire test are hideous etc etc. In fact here’s a coding test I flunked, it was a tricky manipulation of a dataset, followed by just saving the data as comma separated values. The manipulation worked flawlessly, but on my save function they decided to go uberfussy;

String ret = Product + ”, ”;
for (int i = 0; i < AccumulatedValues.Count(); ++i)
{
    ret += AccumulatedValues[i];
    if (i < AccumulatedValues.Count() - 1)
    {
        ret += ”, ”;
    }
}
return ret;

FAIL – Should have done;

String ret = Product ;
for (int i = 0; i < AccumulatedValues.Count(); ++i)
{
    ret += “,” + AccumulatedValues[i];
}
return ret;

meh. Or at least it would be if I hadn’t spent two hours coding the rest of the fucking thing.

So next week I’ve two interviews with London banks for x2 salaries (whoohoo), plus a decent job in Cambridge, so all looking positive.

On another note got some poker coaching after joining in on this pyramid scheme. A guy called Adam Loeffler (ajloeffl on 2p2) had the honour of going through some HH’s with me, and we did this with a replayer & teamviewer/skype. Turned out to be an awesome session, and I learnt a whole bunch of things. As well as that I’ve definitely squashed my ‘everyone’s bluffing’ chip on my shoulder and my husngs lately have been very controlled. Which of course is showing rewards in terms of winning. I’m up to $5 games off that original $10, and might as well continue to build from that – my old BR can just stay as spendables in my current account since it might come in useful if things don’t pan out jobwise…

Knowing What To Do Is Not The Same As Doing It.

Monday, September 6th, 2010

Everytime I browse 2p2 there’s thread after thread of folding top pair. I start playing, determined to get it right, yet somehow I just can’t fold AQ when it hits a flop. Over and over again!

So, would everyone fold these;

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
Pokerstars
5 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($6.85)
CO ($9.34)
BTN ($12.93)
SB ($9.05)
Hero ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BB Kclubs poker card Aspades poker card
UTG raises to $0.20, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.60, UTG folds, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: 5hearts poker card Kdiamonds poker card 5clubs poker card ($1.45, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: Qdiamonds poker card ($3.05, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: 7spades poker card ($3.05, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, BTN goes all-in $11.53, Hero goes all-in $6.60

Final Pot: $23.18

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players

Stacks:
Hero ($10.76)
UTG+1 ($15.71)
CO ($11.61)
BTN ($10.19)
SB ($10)
BB ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is UTG Qspades poker card Qhearts poker card
Hero raises to $0.30, UTG+1 raises to $0.90, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2, UTG+1 calls $1.10

Flop: 8diamonds poker card Jhearts poker card Jclubs poker card ($4.15, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG+1 raises to $4.80, Hero goes all-in $8.76, UTG+1 calls $3.96

Turn: 2hearts poker card ($21.67, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: Jdiamonds poker card ($21.67, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $21.67

No results shown, can you guess whether they beat me? (oh, of course they fucking did, because I have no fold button!)


MeteoricPoker rakeback

Cellsino Poker

40% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Everleaf Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

300% up to $500

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Minted Poker

40% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Everleaf Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

$250-$2,500

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Cake Poker

33% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Cake Poker

Rake: dealt

Statistics: Daily

110% up to $600

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Americas Cardroom

27% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Winning Poker

Rake: dealt

Statistics: Monthly

100% up to $1,000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

True Poker

27% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Winning Poker

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

100% up to $1,000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Fortune Poker

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Boss Media

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

200% up to €1,000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Poker Heaven

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Boss Media

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

200% up to €1000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Paradise Poker

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Boss Media

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

200% up to €1,000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

PKR

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: PKR Network

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

100% up to $800

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Red Star Poker

33% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Cake Poker

Rake: dealt

Statistics: Daily

250% up to $1,500

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Unibet

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Microgaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Monthly

30% Loyalty

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

NoiQ Poker

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: IGT Poker

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

200% up to €1000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Interpoker

30% Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Boss Media

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

200% up to €1000

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Carbon Poker

- Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Merge Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

150% up to $750

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

GR88

- Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Merge Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

150% up to $750

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Bulldog777

- Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Merge Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

150% up to $750

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Overbet

- Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Merge Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

100% up to $600

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!
MeteoricPoker rakeback

Black Chip Poker

- Rakeback

Featured Offer

Network: Merge Gaming

Rake: contributed

Statistics: Daily

150% up to $750

Signup Bonus

Get Rakeback Now!