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Feeling Bad About Losing

Friday, February 26th, 2010

I took a shot at a $30 husng the other night and lost it. I then tried a few $20s and lost them. After that had a go at some $10 4man shootouts and lost those too.

So all in all a $90 knock back. Pretty shitty, but nothing my bankroll can’t handle – if I don’t take these shots I’ll only progress very slowly, and that’s not good for my game or bankroll.

I mentioned the hit to S1ndr0me, and how when you lose it’s a much bigger hurt than the joy you get from winning – the two things don’t really balance. It’s not just my opinion it feels like this, I’ve seen plenty of other players (at all stakes) express a similar thing.

S1ndr0me then mentioned something that lit a lightbulb up over why it’s like this – he said that when he looks at his bankroll he’s very aware of the hours and thousands of hands it’s taken to build that roll.

I realised then that the reason why hurts > joy is that with our BR we’re continually climbing a mountain. We know it’s easier to slide down than climb up, and when we do slide down we have to reclimb the bit we just lost.

So effectively the $$$ we lose are twice the ‘value’ of $$$ we win, because we have to re-win that amount just to get back to where we were. When we see the number $90 lost, we compare it to where we should have been if we’d won that $90, and so relatively speaking we have lost $180 worth of value. Although we’re disciplined enough not to see it as cash, it’s still $180 worth of hard effort and risk. It’s $180 of blood, sweat and tears.

So what mental games can we play to get over this, and how do we reduce our ‘scared money’ tentativeness when taking shots (now that we realise it’s not scared money, but scared ‘effort potentially wasted’)?

Well, I’ve no idea. I’ll think about it, and perhaps Google around a bit. I’ve seen United113′s approach which is to give a set value to a match regardless of win or lose (based on your ROI), but I don’t think this works for me – firstly I don’t really grind enough games to get a valid ROI to see where I’m going, but also I think it would diminish my desire to win. I’m actually very aware that losing a match is putting my BR 2 steps back (just hadn’t articulated it before I guess), and I need that tension to make sure I fight for every game. If I take a bad hit and I’m down to $200 chips to my opponent’s $2800 I’m usually still very confident that I can swing it back (I’ve done it enough times to know I can, even though I probably lose from this point more often than I win). If I gave a value to each game win or lose then I would probably let those games go and my ROI would slip downwards. I have no intentions of becoming the Tim Henman of poker…

Nash Equilibrium & Heads Up SNGs

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

I decided that I need to be a bit less ‘gut feel’ about the last stages of my husngs – the bit where you have your opponent on the ropes and he’s got 4bb left and is shoving every hand (um, or where you’re in that unfortunate position). I get a bit tight in this situation and tend to only call when I have an ace, and that’s really bad since theoretically I can call (or push) a much wider range of hands and be just fine. My problem is that I hate flipping, and when you’ve spent a lot of effort getting the bozo into this position only for him to bounce back on a flip pisses me off. However you just can’t play poker at that point really – he can’t raise pre to see a flop, so there’s no choice. Truth is you just gotta see those flips through, and if you’re good enough then even if he pulls off a couple of flips in a row then each time you’ll be able to bash him back down and eventually one of those flips will do the right thing.

So, getting rid of the ‘gut feeling’ stuff means getting to grips with Nash equilibrium theory, and all the charts and guff that comes with it. Not that it’s complicated really – two charts in all;

1) if you’re the one going to push (or not):

A K Q J T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
A 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
K 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19.9 19.3
Q 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16.3 13.5 12.7
J 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18.6 14.7 13.5 10.6 8.5
T 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 11.9 10.5 7.7 6.5
9 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 14.4 6.9 4.9 3.7
8 20 18 13 13.3 17.5 20 20 20 20 18.8 10.1 2.7 2.5
7 20 16.1 10.3 8.5 9 10.8 14.7 20 20 20 13.9 2.5 2.1
6 20 15.1 9.6 6.5 5.7 5.2 7 10.7 20 20 16.3 * 2
5 20 14.2 8.9 6 4.1 3.5 3 2.6 2.4 20 20 ** 2
4 20 13.1 7.9 5.4 3.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2 2.1 20 *** 1.8
3 20 12.2 7.5 5 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 20 1.7
2 20 11.6 7 4.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 20

2) They’ve pushed – do you call?

A K Q J T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
A 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
K 20 20 20 20 20 20 17.6 15.2 14.3 13.2 12.1 11.4 10.7
Q 20 20 20 20 20 16.1 13.0 10.5 9.9 8.9 8.4 7.8 7.2
J 20 20 19.5 20 18.0 13.4 10.6 8.8 7.0 6.9 6.1 5.8 5.6
T 20 20 15.3 12.7 20 11.5 9.3 7.4 6.3 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.5
9 20 17.1 11.7 9.5 8.4 20 8.2 7.0 5.8 5.0 4.3 4.1 3.9
8 20 13.8 9.7 7.6 6.6 6.0 20 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.5
7 20 12.4 8.0 6.4 5.5 5.0 4.7 20 5.4 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.3
6 20 11.0 7.3 5.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.0 20 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.3
5 20 10.2 6.8 5.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 20 4.6 4.0 3.6
4 18.3 9.1 6.2 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 20 3.8 3.4
3 16.6 8.7 5.9 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 20 3.3
2 15.8 8.1 5.6 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 15.0

(shaded squares = suited hands)

Divide the smallest stack by the big blind and compare it to the value for your hand. If it’s less then shove (or call a shove). If it’s more then either play postflop poker or fold to their shove. You’re supposed to adjust this depending on whether opponent is a nit or an aggrotard, but for now I’ll just take it as it comes – should make me a bit braver for the kill hopefully.

There’s also an excellent spreadsheet a 2p2er created that does this as well as some other theories. Worth a look at (go to last post for his final version).

Update: I knocked up a javascript version here; http://www.meteoricpoker.com/nash.php – enter the values and press return (or tab – basically anything to let it know you’ve changed the value).

January Results

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

Half good, half bad month.

The bad was my cash games – I started out the month after some in depth revision of my play, and came to the conclusion I was pushing too hard with paired hands (not PP) – overvaluing them and trying to get too much value. I was doing well at all-in play, and making good value out of 2pair+ hands, but the weaker made hands were wiping out those gains.

So I trimmed down my game and initially it seemed to be working – a nice 12 buy-in climb. It then collapsed dramatically, and to be honest I’m still not sure why;

At the bottom of that dive Full Tilt bought out Rush Poker, and I instantly switched, lured in by the appeal of big rakeback and racking up a large volume of hands. I’m not a big volume player, and the idea of boosting the number of hands was to reduce variance, but somehow I became swingier then ever. I possibly could have worked my way back to zero, but I was dispirited with the whole thing. My new year’s resolution was to not care about the limits I play, and just go with my bankroll, which is still fine, but it hurt to be within $8 of moving down to NL5 :-(

However  at that point I switched to HUSNGs. Which was the good half of the month :-D

For some reason I’ve been unstoppable – $5 buy-in games went fine, enough to give me confidence with the $10s. I then won 75% of $10 games – 17/23! Yesterday I tried some $20 games (not january I know), and won 2/3, so early days there – however the cash profit from these is astounding. Furthermore I’m not feeling bad (much) when I lose a match, not like when I’ve just spewed 4 buy-ins at NL10 – however that could be because I’m on a winning streak, sooo I’m not going to make too much of that right now.

Final gains: $120 including rakeback. $70 without rb – have to admit, rush poker did win in that respect!

February I’m concentrating on HU. Maybe this is a turning point in what kind of game I play, we’ll have to see…

ps. forgot to mention 21st in the WBCOOP main event as well :-)

Also got two weeks of stox from trulyfree, better get watching some vids I guess!

Stretching the Legs of Hold’em Manager

Saturday, January 9th, 2010

So after throwing away a bunch of money I decided to leave the tables and do a bit of thinking. The reason was simple enough really – I’d got involved in hands where I’d air or weak holdings and painted myself into a corner. Inevitably either my river bluff would fail or my opponent would put in a raise that I felt pot committed enough to call, and then I’d watch my sweet sweet money disappear into their stack.

Ultimately the thing I’m doing wrong is making my FPS moves too expensive. They might work a lot of the time (honestly!), but I need to recognise when it’s going tits up and give up on that hand earlier while not bloating the pot further.

It didn’t take a genius to figure that one out. In fact I’m too ashamed to post those hands here – they might make you laugh, but I’m not happy about it. However it did get me into the mood of delving into the analysis side of Hold’em Manager and see what it can give me.

I took two periods of my poker ‘career’. Both are NL10, and the first was from April to July last year where I could do no wrong and won $300 over 13,000 hands (21BB/100). The second was my latest 13,000 hands where I’ve won $90 at just under 7BB/100. Nothing wrong with 7BB/100 of course, and the first period looks like a big heater, but it’s still worth a comparison to see if there’s a significant difference somewhere.

I pasted the comparison into a single big image – 21BB/100 on left, latest hands on right;

The first set of boxes is my opening range UTG, MP and CO. I’m kinda pleased with this – I knew that my game has both loosened up and become more aggressive and I was worried that my range had actually become completely wild. It looks fairly well controlled though, and both periods show that I stick to my ranges very solidly (I have no concerns about the lack of balance – what’s the point at NL10 when I rarely play anyone for more than a few hundred hands! That’s also why I’m not worried about publishing it here either, it’s not as if my screen name is meteoric either). As expected my range has widened a bit, mainly at the top end although I’ve also included more suited connectors. The one funny extra is 72o – this is because Ultimate Bet has 72 side bet tables, and it’s worth a quick 3bet or flop cbet with 72o just for this side bet. (Edit – at least, it doesn’t look like it’s gone wild to me, but then I’ve little to compare against. Maybe I shouldn’t loosen up my early position as much as that?)

The rest of the tables compare various situations such as flopped hands, showdown hands and positional stats. Since 13k hands isn’t a huge sample I’ve tried to pinpoint only those areas where the numbers are extremely different. So, from bottom upwards (sorry, that’s just the way they were pasted);

Positional stats at the bottom aren’t much different, and that doesn’t surprise me. It’s been a while since I really came to understand the power of position, and I don’t think I’m spewing too much by playing OOP in the wrong situations.

The flopped hands shows one big anomaly. When I hit a top pair with weak kicker (and no draw), last year I lost about $100 (it’s not too surprising that this is a losing hand, it could easily be out paired on later streets and obviously out-kicked) – the later session though I’ve lost $343 though!  It’s the biggest difference in that table, so I need to see what I’m doing differently. I’m probably just playing them too aggressively and not controlling the pot enough. There are probably two situations – ace with weak kicker, and a low top pair (for instance, 9′s on a 923 board). I need to see which is the one I’m messing up. It’s probably more likely to be the aces I think.

Edit – I’ve just realised this is TPWK or worse, so this is including high card hands. I need to dig a bit deeper. It wouldn’t surprise me that I’m now floating overcards too much…

The river made hands seems to suggest that the first session did owe a lot to being a heater – I seem to make a lot more big hands then than lately. Not much I can do about that, unless of course I’m folding too early too often now. Kindof doubt that though.

Groupings suggest big aces have suffered the most lately. I’m putting this one down to variance too – there are a lot of AK pots which become flips, and so a slight shift in luck can result in a large monetary swing.

So final conclusion – top pair weak kicker = my achilles heel. Need to look into this some more…

Letting The Aggromonkey Give Me His Money

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

Damn, I hate derailing my own posts, especially when it’s a big end of year one – skip down to the next post and read the wonderous scribblings there first, then come back and laugh at my play here. I just went on a nice +$36 session, but had some dubious hands;

What does anyone make of this?

A guy with no history shows up and goes aggro all over some poor guy;

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($10)
Hero ($18.38)
BTN ($10.15)
SB ($10.36)
BB ($8.96)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players)
1 fold, Hero folds, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.40, BB calls $0.30

Flop: 8hearts poker card 9clubs poker card 8clubs poker card ($0.80, 2 players)
SB bets $0.77, BB calls $0.77

Turn: 2spades poker card ($2.34, 2 players)
SB bets $2.23, BB calls $2.23

River: Qdiamonds poker card ($6.80, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $6.96, BB folds

Final Pot: $13.76

SB wins $13.42 (net +$3.06)

BB lost $3.40

Is this value betting? Looks like hammering til they fold type stuff to me. When he’s on a draw though (BB in this hand), he’s much more passive;

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($7.84)
Hero ($13.35)
BTN ($10)
SB ($10)
BB ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is CO Jspades poker card 10spades poker card
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30, UTG folds

Flop: 5spades poker card 5diamonds poker card 10diamonds poker card ($1.30, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.24, SB raises to $2.68, BB calls $2.68, Hero calls $1.44

Turn: 6clubs poker card ($9.34, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

River: Qhearts poker card ($9.34, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: $9.34
Hero shows
Jspades poker card 10spades poker card
BB shows
Adiamonds poker card 6diamonds poker card
SB shows
2diamonds poker card 3diamonds poker card

Hero wins $8.88 (net +$5.80)

BB lost $3.08
UTG lost $0.10
SB lost $3.08

So in this next hand where he tangles with me, it’s a drawy board but he doesn’t play it passively. Should I have given the flop reraise more credit, and started thinking I could be up against an overpair or J with better kicker? I called flop since I wasn’t giving him much credit, and figured he was trying to push me off the flop – since I had top pair with good(ish) kicker I figured I was ok.

Then the turn completed the flush that I didn’t think he was on, plus I had a Qhearts poker card, I figured I’d call with the possibility of a decent flush. Finally on the river it was a blank, and since I’d called the turn I could hardly fold to a bet less than pot.

Aggromonkey is UTG;

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($13.27)
UTG+1 ($9.70)
CO ($10.20)
Hero ($19.10)
SB ($10.05)
BB ($2.65)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN Jclubs poker card Qhearts poker card
UTG raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: 3hearts poker card Jhearts poker card 7diamonds poker card ($0.95, 2 players)
UTG bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.13, UTG raises to $2.15, Hero calls $1.02

Turn: 5hearts poker card ($5.25, 2 players)
UTG bets $2.49, Hero calls $2.49

River: 7clubs poker card ($10.23, 2 players)
UTG goes all-in $8.23, Hero calls $8.23

Final Pot: $26.69
Hero shows
Jclubs poker card Qhearts poker card
UTG shows
Ahearts poker card Kclubs poker card

Hero wins $25.69 (net +$12.42)

UTG lost $13.27

He then berated me for making a really bad call (which one? Did he really think the river was a bad call?), and said ‘broke with TPBK’ which was funny since he was the one that went broke with A high.

Still, his point about a big pot with just top pair is kinda valid, but with his hands was I justified in seeing the hand through?

Edit: hmm, actually that river isn’t that blank. Maybe I was lucky on that hand…

2009

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

The holiday season hasn’t been kind to me – in the second half of December I’ve thrown away $150. A lot of it was literally thrown away too. In a recent session I discovered that turning up the aggression slightly was working well – one move in particular where you’re out of position and it’s the kind of flop you’d cbet (dry board, single A or K on it), so you check and let your opponent do the cbet, and then you raise. Previously I’d call, and lead the turn, but obviously this has the downside of giving another card. So the flop check-raise was proving successful, and then I watched an awesome video on being a LAG. This unfortunately had the effect of me spewing $40 in a few hundred hands!

I think the differences between the session where the aggro worked and the one where I spewed were;

a) First session I’d already played for a while, and hadn’t shown myself to be anything out of the ordinary, while the second session I sat down and started firing away. Any idiot could put down as a aggrotard, and this is what happened (my check-raise was reraised every time just about).
b) I picked my spots more carefully the first time. I had got to know the players at the tables, and was able to pick and choose when to push harder. The second session I’d just started, and was basically trying to bully complete unknowns.
c) The second session I didn’t back down. I often continued against those players who pushed back at my 3bets. Consequently I ran into AA several times quite quickly. At one point I had to three barrel bluff, and the final river push finally made the guy fold, but how stupid is that! It worked once, but I don’t think it was a profitable thing to do…

So anyway, 2010 I will stop being an idiot. I’m still bankrolled for nl10, but only 10 buy-ins above the move down point – if I don’t even out I’ll be back at NL5 by February. However, you’ve got to experiment with your game I believe, so I don’t feel too bad (it’s not as if I’m going to turn pro any time soon).

Ok, onto the 2009 review;

Cash:

Tourney:

Well, it’s in the black! :-) (the $40 lost yesterday was 2010, so close thing to ruining the year’s results, lol).

The New Year, 2009
This time last year I’d dropped right down to NL2 – most of my game up to that point had been NL10 at Full Tilt (which was their lowest stakes at that time), and it hadn’t been going very well. So I moved to Pokerstars and dropped down, first to NL5 and then to NL2 as I continued to lose.

The Redeposit – April
In April I finally lost my entire account. I redeposited, and for some reason known only to myself at the time I went back to NL10. I then had a massive heater, gaining $350 in 20k hands. How that happened I’ve no idea! I should go back and look at those hands in detail, but as far as I can remember I was very very lucky – PokerTracker all-in performance says $120 over expected value at its peak.

The Cash Out – July
Inevitably the heater ran out, and I lost a bunch of $$$ pretty quickly. I think I’d upped the number of tables I was playing, plus overconfidence, and that led to much spewage. As it came crashing down a personal credit card problem suddenly arose and I had to withdraw my entire roll to pay for it. In hindsight this was actually a useful thing to happen to me. Firstly, it showed the kindness of friends as they immediately transferred to me a little bit of spare cash to keep playing. Secondly it made me decide to follow bankroll management properly. Up until that point I’d play NL10 if I had over $100 in my account (or over only $50 sometimes). Starting from $30 with the knowledge that I wouldn’t be able to redeposit in the next couple of months really made sure I did the right thing to avoid going busto again.

The Grind
So I returned to NL2 again. This time my game was much stronger and I rapidly built up enough to move to NL5. I carried on playing well and clipped $200 to move into NL10. I then lost a few buy-ins, and moved back down. Ground up, bust down. I did this 3 times (the three peaks at 41k, 51k and 65k hands). I suddenly realised I was doing the bankroll management slightly wrong – I had a single threshold of $200 where I moved either up or down. What I needed to do was set the move-up threshold higher than the move down one (ie $250 to move up, $200 to move down). This way I’d have a 5 buy-in margin to lose before having to move down.

The Donkament Win – November
I was within $20 of the $250 threshold, and it was taking ages (it says $60 on that graph, but I was also getting rakeback and bonuses which aren’t shown on the graph). It was November now, and I seemed to be on the most miserable downswing ever – no big spews, but not a single +ve session for ages and ages. Then one Sunday I was messing around playing some MTTs (as you can see from the graph above, I don’t tourney much), and suddenly went deep in a $2 180 man SNG. I walked away with $70 – I was finally in NL10 territory again.

The Final Fall
I seemed to be playing well and built my roll up to $450. It didn’t feel like a heater this time, and I felt confident that I was winning appropriate hands rather than sucking out. I decided to look closer at rakeback and see which site was the best for me, and so I split my roll amongst 4 sites – Full Tilt, PokerStars, Ultimate Bet and Party Poker. The difference between the sites was amazing – at NL10 UB and PP was full of limpers who’d try to see every street, while FT and PS still had its usual compliment of 2p2 players. Despite this I’ve failed to profit from them, and even worse seemed to have spewed a ton of money.

Final Roundup
So what’s the roundup of the year? I have to be honest with myself and say I’m not very good at poker. Almost 100k hands, and still being buffeted around by variance and barely keeping above the rake. In fact since my chart shows only +$44 profit, it’s obvious my entire roll ($350 at end of 2009) is made entirely of rakeback and bonuses.

Is that a big problem? I guess not as I still enjoy playing. I still enjoy the challenge of learning a game where it’s clear that gaining knowledge and experience will lift you through the ranks. The frustration is coming from seeing the stakes I play as a goal in itself.

So my resolution for 2010 is to let go of the idea that I’m not a winning player if I can’t ascend rapidly up the stakes. I will play poker at the stakes my bankroll allows, and concentrate on being the best player I can for those stakes. I guess ascending graphs of $$$ won will show whether I’m succeeding, although for me it’ll be how I achieved it that’ll be more important…

Stealing Blinds

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

I’ve probably blogged on this a load of times, but it’s always worth a brag. I was watching Pokey’s microstakes video which is a bit dated but still worth a view. He steals using minraises from the button which TBH isn’t that good at microstakes – limpers are quite likely to go that extra blind since it’s no biggy for them and they love to see the flop. At higher stakes I can imagine it’s fine as most people understand position enough to fold, and keeping the price of stealing that low pretty much guarantees it’s profitable.

Anyway, I decided to do a quick check on PokerTracker to see if my stealing is going ok – I’m a relentless blind stealer and even a constant 3bet defender won’t put me off (especially as all it takes is the odd decent hand against a manic 3betting blind to make it super profitable). Here are the results since April, filtered for stealing opportunities where I raised;

Since I rarely decide not to steal (if both blinds are 64 vpip types I might not, or against a manic 3bettor I admit I do tighten up a bit), it’s obvious that stealing pays – 39BB/100!! It’s almost worth just stealing and not playing any other hands (apart from that being insanely dull).

Position stats;

Position 1 is cutoff, and it’s always worth watching out for that ultratight player on your left who lets you steal through the button – extremely worth it in fact, you can see from the positional stats that it’s a higher BB/hand rate. Mainly this is because the button is just so obviously a stealing position that blinds give it a lot less credit than they should, while the CO is seen as a regular position and will respect your raise ;-) . I’m not a big fan of stealing from the small blind though – you’re generally only gaining one big blind while risking three and you’re OOP if called. Not a big enough deal to make a fuss about…



Forum

Re: StoxEV by Simon Debanks 09:25, May 07 2010
Re: StoxEV by Meteoric 20:05, Apr 29 2010
Re: StoxEV by yegor_kgb 08:30, Apr 28 2010
StoxEV by Simon Debanks 21:53, Apr 27 2010
How hard can it be! by Meteoric 20:27, Mar 15 2010
Re: Forum Upgrade by Meteoric 14:26, Mar 11 2010
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