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Thoughts

Wednesday, June 8th, 2011

Had a bit of rungood tonight, which was helped by it apparently being Spew Tuesday in the States. I’m still not actually playing better, but things just went my way for a change. I’m pretty sure my big leak (which the crappy W$SD is a symptom of) is that I’m overvalueing one pair hands. Especially the high pairs, like AQ with the Q paired, or KT with the T paired. I set out tonight determined to fold them in the face of aggression, but I doubt I did, although the chance didn’t seem to happen very often tonight for some reason.

I also decided that I want to play more hands in position, and not just against the blinds. If someone has opened before me, my strategy for a long time now has been either 3bet big hands, call pocket pairs, or fold. I guess this is fine (or normal even), but surely it means that when I open, the chances are I’ll be OOP unless it folds to the blinds? Sure my late position ranges are wider than my early position ranges, but while that means I do play more hands IP, they’re weaker hands too.

So I thought what kind of hands can I play if someone has opened before me (other than the PP’s and big Ax’s). I guess it has to be a less dominated range than the opener. So I figured if I call with the range of the position earlier than the opener, then I should be IP with a stronger range? Probably not the most intellectual of strategies, I suppose I should really be considering hand strengths in a different light, ie suited connectors and ranges that don’t overlap theirs (that has a name I expect – merged, balanced, aga range?).

As it happened the situation almost never came up – not enough seats at 6max really. If on the button and the MP opened I never had a hand in my UTG range, CO opening I didn’t have a hand from my MP range etc. I think it happened three or four times at most. And I think those hands went 50/50 anyway (mostly missing & folding to the cbet, or betting when unraised and getting a fold), so no great insights there anyway. I probably should put more thought into it and consider a better calling range that’s based on something more intelligent really.

On another plus note Carbon have sorted out my bonus code, so now I’ve 3 months to clear the 150% deposit bonus. I reckon that’s plenty of time as long as I move up before the end. We’ll see.

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Saturday, June 4th, 2011

ok, so a minimal sample on Carbon so far;

but infuriatingly it’s already showing my terrible non-showdown +ve, showdown -ve trend. Terrible because overall it never shows a profit – I’ve seen very few people with this kind of graph, and even less who are profitable (Giev Money being one of the few).

Taking my hands from the last 20k or so, my non-showdown is winning at 10bb/100, which is quite a rate considering that’s virtually most people’s overall winning rate (at nanostakes), yet that is blown totally out of the water with showdown losing at -530bb/100 (wtf!).

I’m not sure which way I’m getting this wrong – am I calling down light, or am I being too strong on my value hands (turning what should be +ve showdown hands into smaller but +ve nonshowdown hands)?

Looking at my Carbon hands, the bulk of mistakes seems to be hands that end up all-in (both pre and postflop). In particular I’m being very light with short stacks, and looking back at it this is adding up to a lot of moronicness.

Nevertheless, the frustration is really about the lack of ability to change – I’m constantly pushing myself to be nittier and nittier, yet the carbon graph is a scaled down version of the 20k graph. Nothing is changing. I’m chipping away at something that is fundamentally flawed, and I’ve yet to see what it is…

Re Phil Ivey, yeah I saw that -was chatting with Yegor as the story was emerging. Initially it looked pretty good that he was speaking up, but then after Full Tilt’s response came out, and we had a closer look at the filed whatsitsname (case?), it was clear that Ivey’s out for himself and this is massively bad for the US players. He may have ruined any short-term chance of them getting their money back, and possibly even long term if FT can’t recover. One part of FT’s response was interesting – they say he owes them a large sum of money. Not many people seemed to have picked up on this, and I’m wondering what ‘large’ means to them, not to mention why he would owe them…

Up, Not Down

Monday, May 9th, 2011

Things seem to be going well for a change;

I feel pretty good as well – obviously nl5 is not the most challenging of levels, but I actually believe that I properly outplayed them and deserved every penny. The last 1k of that is nl10, and that’s going nicely too (a lot less passive, but they’re still moronic).

All I need to do now is not drift and put some volume in. Stick to the plan, keep a level head etc. I’ve got a lot of catching up to do since everyone else I know is splashing around nl25 – nl100 now, but it’s not a big deal. I’m still learning the game…

Swongs – Wrong Place, Wrong Time

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

I still don’t know if I suck at poker, or if I take swings far too personally. I redeposited on Full Tilt to take advantage of the bonus they’re offering at the moment, and decided to nl10 Rush it to have some chance of clearing it.

Didn’t go so well;

I did clear $5 of the bonus during that disaster though!

Everything I did seemed to meet some kind of resistance – flop cbet success only 45%, 3bets all over the place, and generally everything was awful.

I looked back over the hands, and of course there were some terrible ones – usually 3 barrel bluffs, but not too much that I should be ashamed of.

So I dropped down in stakes just to stop the bleed, and gave up on the bonus.

Instantly there was a difference – my cbets were working! They folded to my steals, they folded to my 3bet defending in the blinds, they even started paying off the odd hand or two;

Flop cbet success now at a reasonable 60%.

Small sample size (in both cases really), but I can’t believe nl5 should be so different to nl10. Surely they should be more or less the same?

Either there IS a difference, and everyone’s solid at nl10 (!?!), or I experienced a bad downswing – my opponents really did just ‘have it’ each and every time.

I also can’t believe I’m still writing about these nanostakes, but maybe understanding these swings is part of the learning process. I’ve never put in large amounts of volume, and over-reacting to swings in the BR like this has probably not been too healthy. Never mind, I’ll just enjoy the game for being a game for now…

Just a Little Bit

Tuesday, April 19th, 2011

So my shares in Party shot up about 30% :-) Not quite back up to the value before the Germans announced the tax proposal (funny that – dropped 30%, rose 30%, but not back to where it started – damn maths), but since I bought a bunch more at the bottom it means I’m averaging out to breakeven. Quite happy with that – roll on US regulation!

I figured out that all the fees for selling and buying shares had come to about £120 in the last month, which was a bit of a shock. Share dealing rake obviously. I need to calm it down a bit and just sit on the shares I have now. That was the original intention, but I got caught out in a bit of rollercoasting…

For poker I’ve been playing on Cake – 6max, ultra low stakes. More for relaxation rather than anything intense since I’m still very busy on that web contract. I logged in and found $60 just sitting there, so decided to see if I could build it up a bit. Reckon I’ll try a 10 buy-in BRM which is edgy, but I can’t face nl4 for too long. Setting that limit means at least I’ll have to put some effort into nl4 before spazzing it away at nl10. Plus Cake is kinda interesting with no HUD allowed – I’m making a lot more efforts with the notes (like ‘spazz bastard owes me $8′, ‘called me fish – DIAGF’ etc).

For returning to Rush I’d need to redeposit, but I want to see how Full Tilt copes over the next couple of months first. I expect them to be ok, but who knows what damage has been really done under the covers. That may change next week since I have the whole week off, and once the Cake money is spewed out, I’ll need to go somewhere obv.

LeakBustin’

Saturday, March 12th, 2011

Knocked out the last 2k hands this morning and did the leakbuster analysis again (not that I’m expecting a change, but just for curiosity’s sake). The session this morning was pretty bad – I started out getting deep and then calling off some really dubious TP type hands (off course losing). I pulled some of it back with hands that won more than they deserved (over pair 3 way against a 2pair and the board pairing just in the right place – hate it when that happens against me, but a relief this way round!). Things generally went worse and I continued to make some really bad river calls – another example was a TKA board with the villain calling against some strong bets (I had a TTT set) – he made a massive overbet on river and it was a spot I just knew he wasn’t bluffing in. So I paid off his QJ of course…

So ended the session some 5 buy-ins down, which is pretty shocking (although not expensive at nl5). Not all the hands were bad call-downs, I was running into a lot of sets & 2pairs, although most likely I was also overvalueing my TP hands. It’s one thing seeing your leak, it’s another applying yourself to patch it :-(

Anyway, Leakbuster says;

River aggression too high and going to showdown too light & too often. The SB reraise steal is not something I’m worried about (I’m actually showing a profit from the SB which is pretty cool). If anything I’m losing too much from the BB, but Leakbuster doesn’t seem to think so.

However my river agg% is too low, which is counter to the W$SD% & WTSD stats? So confused there, although I’m definitely making very dubious calls on the river against obviously made hands. I should just concentrate on this I think…

Can’t Teach an Old Dog

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

I’ve reached 7600 hands since my last LeakBuster analysis and I couldn’t wait any longer (even though 2 more sessions would have done it). So I ran the numbers again.

Apparently I’ve got worse!

The biggest leak apparently was losing at showdown too often (obviously a bad thing to lose at showdown, but what they mean is that I’m not folding earlier in the hand enough). Their ‘ideal’ range is about 51-58%. Previously I was 46.7%, now it’s 46.4%, so failed there (oh, actual stat is W$SD%, so bigger the % the better).

Next was Flop fold to cbet – I wasn’t folding enough, they want 46-63% and again I’m still falling short with no improvement from previously.

However my cbet% has rocketed from 40% to 80%, actually overshooting their recommended range (but only by a couple of percent, earning me an A-).

So I’m annoyed with myself now – I thought I was folding LOADS more, but evidently not. I was even thinking that I was playing better, even though it took a bit of spewage mid-way;

Well, probably I am playing better really. There’s definitely fewer catastrophic crashes where I continually failed to fold marginals vs obvious monsters – I have folded a lot more QQ, KK & Aces than ever before!

Here’s a hand for amusement’s sake. Possibly if I didn’t show results it would even look reasonably played :-) (plus subtle nanostake brag involving stack sizes)

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($3.35)
Hero ($18.02)
CO ($7.88)
BTN ($2.80)
SB ($7.50)
BB ($6.06)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: 8clubs poker card 5clubs poker card 4diamonds poker card ($0.52, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN goes all-in $2.65, Hero calls $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Turn: 4spades poker card ($8.47, 3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero raises to $13.27, CO goes all-in $3.48

River: Jclubs poker card ($26.82, 3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $26.82
Hero shows a full house, Jacks full of Fours
Jdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card
CO shows a full house, Eights full of Fours
8hearts poker card 8spades poker card
BTN shows four of a kind, Fours
4clubs poker card 4hearts poker card

Hero wins $17.67 (net +$1.60)
BTN wins $7.91 (net +$5.11)

CO lost $7.88


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