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So Maybe That’s Why

Always good when Yegor explains something to me – small moment of feeling stupid followed by lightbulbs popping off all over the place.

It’s looking like multiway pots are a problem for me, and possibly something more – while all that was percolating around my head (it takes a while) I was browsing 2p2 and hit this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69/micro-stakes-pl-nl/top-pair-but-no-reads-easy-fold-863394

The thread was about this hand;

SB: $18.60
BB: $25.35
UTG: $46.45
MP: $70.36
Hero (CO): $20.00
BTN: $25.00btw, MP is a solid player, 1st hand from BTN

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Ahearts poker card Jdiamonds poker card
1 fold, MP raises to $1, Hero calls $1, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) Aspades poker card 5spades poker card 6hearts poker card (3 players)
MP bets $2.00, Hero calls $2, BTN raises to $8.50, MP folds, Hero???

Immediately all the advice was to fold, and I was thinking wtf, fold big top pair with really good kicker? Then someone explained;

You are out of position and even best case scenario he has ~33% equity or so(naked fd). If he has flush+straight draw he’s actually ahead.

Yes you could be ahead but plenty of scarecards and it’s going to get expensive to find out.

You call, turn is blank, he bets, you what? You call, turn is another blank. He bets, you what? Pay off his set or 2 pair hoping to bust his bluff?

You call, turn is spade, he bluffs you with his OESD.

You call, turn is 9, he bets. You do what?

By calling you put yourself in icky spot and 3betting is just horrible. Unless there’s reason to believe he’s playing back at you probably best to just fold and save yourself headaches. There’s almost no good turn cards for you. 2 pair out in case he has 2 pair but thats about it. Could also be worst card in deck for you if he has set…(trips aren’t much of outs as if you were behind unlikely to help)

which made sense – if it had been me I’d have called (or even shoved maybe!). So I can’t even spot an easy fold :-(

3 Responses to “So Maybe That’s Why”

  1. Simon Debanks says:

    I bet you do from now on :)

  2. Meteoric says:

    :-) Yep, the session after writing that went a lot better, or it did until close to the end when I ran into sets three times quickly in a row and bought me down to just a buy-in up (better than -ve tho!).

    At least one of those set hands was an AQ TPGK vs UTG, so possibly the lesson’s not completely learned yet.

  3. yegor says:

    :) the next step is discovering SPR (stack-to-pot ratios) :)


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