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Archive for August, 2010

So Maybe That’s Why

Monday, August 30th, 2010

Always good when Yegor explains something to me – small moment of feeling stupid followed by lightbulbs popping off all over the place.

It’s looking like multiway pots are a problem for me, and possibly something more – while all that was percolating around my head (it takes a while) I was browsing 2p2 and hit this thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69/micro-stakes-pl-nl/top-pair-but-no-reads-easy-fold-863394

The thread was about this hand;

SB: $18.60
BB: $25.35
UTG: $46.45
MP: $70.36
Hero (CO): $20.00
BTN: $25.00btw, MP is a solid player, 1st hand from BTN

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Ahearts poker card Jdiamonds poker card
1 fold, MP raises to $1, Hero calls $1, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) Aspades poker card 5spades poker card 6hearts poker card (3 players)
MP bets $2.00, Hero calls $2, BTN raises to $8.50, MP folds, Hero???

Immediately all the advice was to fold, and I was thinking wtf, fold big top pair with really good kicker? Then someone explained;

You are out of position and even best case scenario he has ~33% equity or so(naked fd). If he has flush+straight draw he’s actually ahead.

Yes you could be ahead but plenty of scarecards and it’s going to get expensive to find out.

You call, turn is blank, he bets, you what? You call, turn is another blank. He bets, you what? Pay off his set or 2 pair hoping to bust his bluff?

You call, turn is spade, he bluffs you with his OESD.

You call, turn is 9, he bets. You do what?

By calling you put yourself in icky spot and 3betting is just horrible. Unless there’s reason to believe he’s playing back at you probably best to just fold and save yourself headaches. There’s almost no good turn cards for you. 2 pair out in case he has 2 pair but thats about it. Could also be worst card in deck for you if he has set…(trips aren’t much of outs as if you were behind unlikely to help)

which made sense – if it had been me I’d have called (or even shoved maybe!). So I can’t even spot an easy fold :-(

Back To Old Ways

Sunday, August 29th, 2010

Returning to 6max seems to be all deja vu. I seem to have returned to my mysterious redline inversion;

I’ve googled around for reasons but it seems to be a rare thing. Possibilities are either I bluff too much or I’m too much of a calling station. From that last hand I posted it could be that I’m allowing my opponents to draw out on me too often, although I’m usually aware of pot odds and try to protect my hand against the obvious FDs & connected boards. OTOH from these two hands I could quite likely be a calling station when I have marginal hands;

  • showdown hand 1
    $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
    [url=http://weaktight.com/ftp/]FullTiltPoker[/url]
    6 Players

    Stacks:
    UTG ($5.51)
    Hero ($6.82)
    CO ($5.05)
    BTN ($3.80)
    SB ($3.09)
    BB ($5.26)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 Kspades poker card Jspades poker card
    1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

    Flop: 5hearts poker card Qdiamonds poker card Jhearts poker card ($0.50, 3 players)
    SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.45, CO folds, SB calls $0.95

    Turn: 6clubs poker card ($3.40, 2 players)
    SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

    River: 9hearts poker card ($4.40, 2 players)
    SB goes all-in $0.99, Hero calls $0.99

    Final Pot: $6.38
    SB shows a pair of Queens
    Qhearts poker card 8clubs poker card
    Hero shows
    Kspades poker card Jspades poker card

    SB wins $5.96 (net +$2.87)

    Hero lost $3.09
    CO lost $0.15

  • showdown hand 2
    $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
    [url=http://weaktight.com/ftp/]FullTiltPoker[/url]
    6 Players

    Stacks:
    UTG ($4.05)
    UTG+1 ($3.19)
    CO ($3.28)
    Hero ($5.20)
    SB ($9.09)
    BB ($3.63)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BTN Aclubs poker card 4diamonds poker card
    2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10

    Flop: 3clubs poker card 2diamonds poker card 4spades poker card ($0.37, 2 players)
    CO checks, Hero bets $0.37, CO calls $0.37

    Turn: Qspades poker card ($1.11, 2 players)
    CO bets $1.11, Hero calls $1.11

    River: 3hearts poker card ($3.33, 2 players)
    CO goes all-in $1.65, Hero calls $1.65

    Final Pot: $6.63
    Hero shows
    Aclubs poker card 4diamonds poker card
    CO shows two pair, Queens and Threes
    Qclubs poker card Jclubs poker card

    CO wins $6.19 (net +$2.91)

    Hero lost $3.28

I looked through nonshowdown hands, and it’s almost all flop cbets, with a few like this;

  • non-showdown hand 1
    $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
    [url=http://weaktight.com/ftp/]FullTiltPoker[/url]
    6 Players

    Stacks:
    UTG ($6.54)
    UTG+1 ($0.38)
    CO ($4.48)
    Hero ($5.87)
    SB ($9.82)
    BB ($7.12)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BTN Kdiamonds poker card Aclubs poker card
    3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

    Flop: Jhearts poker card 6hearts poker card Qhearts poker card ($0.32, 2 players)
    BB bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, BB folds

    Final Pot: $0.92

    Hero wins $0.88 (net +$0.28)

    BB lost $0.30

  • non-showdown hand 2
    $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
    [url=http://weaktight.com/ftp/]FullTiltPoker[/url]
    6 Players

    Stacks:
    UTG ($5.22)
    UTG+1 ($3.45)
    CO ($12.59)
    Hero ($5.13)
    SB ($9.24)
    BB ($14.46)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BTN Ahearts poker card 10clubs poker card
    UTG raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds

    Flop: 9hearts poker card 9clubs poker card 7diamonds poker card ($0.27, 2 players)
    UTG bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.40, UTG folds

    Final Pot: $0.81

    Hero wins $0.78 (net +$0.28)

    UTG lost $0.24

so I kinda suspect my non-showdown stuff where I’m catching obvious bluffs is actually good, and if I were to sort out my CS tendencies it would still remain a solid +ve (or at least breakeven) line (obviously reduced since I’ll be folding those pots I’m currently calling).

Plus fwiw here’s some stats;

Fold or Call?

Friday, August 20th, 2010

Moments away from going busto now (<$100 left), so to stretch it out a bit longer I decided to play NL5 rush poker with the intention of working on my 6max ABC poker. The idea being to tighten up a bit (I’m too much SLAG and not enough TAG), fold to big raises more and see how a less bluffy/more valuebetting me might do.

So far so good, more or less. Had one bad beat where my KT 2pair hand went all-in against their T8 2pair, and of course an 8 rolled out on the river – however need to put in loads more hands so those beats merge into the noise.

Anyway, if I’m supposed to be playing totally ABC, then what’s the move on this hand. Assume no history or stats (it is rush poker after all);

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem

6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($6.94)
UTG+1 ($7.17)
Hero ($5.75)
BTN ($6.92)
SB ($4.65)
BB ($5.79)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is CO 8spades poker card 8diamonds poker card
UTG raises to $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, 1 fold, SB calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: 9hearts poker card 4spades poker card 7hearts poker card ($0.35, 3 players)
SB bets $0.05, UTG calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.05

Turn: 2clubs poker card ($0.50, 3 players)
SB bets $0.50, UTG folds, Hero ?

Misled!

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Dammit! I thought I was doing really well at the $5 4man shootouts – $100 up after 20 odd games.

Turns out HEM has a bug – any time that I went out in the first round it was recording the match as a regular 2man HU match. So when I filtered my results on just 4mans those games weren’t included.

No wonder I was doing so well, but it explains I was getting frustrated that I couldn’t continue my 4man success when trying $10 single 2man HU matches. How depressing, it seems that I’m still crap at poker.

Update: It gets worse. I figured I’d experiment and see how far just value betting would take me. I’d still throw a few bluffs in, but just in obviously high FE spots.

Didn’t make any difference at all. It seemed to be an endless series of missed flops and villains with constant made hands.

In my last game the only hand I got that I’d consider ‘big’ was a straight, plus trips once was nice. The rest were weak pairs. My opponent got 2 flushes, 2 straights and also hit trips. It just felt like he never missed.

It’s felt that way all evening – I’ve played 11 games and only won 3. So I pushed all my opponents from today into one alias in HEM, and compared showdowns;

  me   them
Boats 4 3
Flushes 1 5
Straights 2 8
Sets 1 1
Trips 3 2
2pair 5 6
2pair (pair on board) 18 21
TP 9 7

if straights+ are monsters, then they had 16, and I had 7. Obviously value betting isn’t enough, I’m going to need some kind of hole card spyware…

or, maybe I’m going to showdown too light? More to think about.

I Don’t Stand a Chance…

Monday, August 16th, 2010

Same opponent, 1st round of a knockout MTT (watch the stacks – you’ll see that not much happened between these hands);

No Limit Holdem Tournament
Pokerstars
2 Players

$5.00+$5.00+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (2,720)
BB (280)

Blinds: 25/50

Pre-Flop: (75, 2 players) Hero is SB 7diamonds poker card Kspades poker card
Hero goes all-in 2,720, BB goes all-in 230

Flop: Qdiamonds poker card Jclubs poker card 2hearts poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: Kdiamonds poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: 10spades poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: 3,000
BB shows a straight, Nine to King
9diamonds poker card 8clubs poker card
Hero shows a pair of Kings
7diamonds poker card Kspades poker card

BB wins 560 (net +280)

Hero collects 2,440 (net -280)

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players

$5.00+$5.00+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (2,465)
BB (535)

Blinds: 30/60

Pre-Flop: (90, 2 players) Hero is SB Aclubs poker card Adiamonds poker card
Hero raises to 120, BB goes all-in 535, Hero calls 415

Flop: 4clubs poker card 6spades poker card Qhearts poker card (1,070, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: Jclubs poker card (1,070, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: 5spades poker card (1,070, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 1,070
BB shows a straight, Three to Seven
7spades poker card 3clubs poker card
Hero shows a pair of Aces
Aclubs poker card Adiamonds poker card

BB wins 1,070 (net +535)

Hero lost 535

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players

$5.00+$5.00+$0.50

Stacks:
Hero (1,900)
BB (1,100)

Blinds: 30/60

Pre-Flop: (90, 2 players) Hero is SB Qhearts poker card Qdiamonds poker card
Hero raises to 120, BB calls 60

Flop: 5spades poker card 9hearts poker card 6clubs poker card (240, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 260, BB raises to 520, Hero goes all-in 1,780, BB goes all-in 460

Turn: Kclubs poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: 4spades poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Hero says “wow”

Final Pot: 3,000
BB shows a straight, Five to Nine
8spades poker card 7diamonds poker card
Hero shows a pair of Queens
Qhearts poker card Qdiamonds poker card

BB wins 2,200 (net +1,100)

Hero collects 800 (net -1,100)

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
2 Players

$5.00+$5.00+$0.50

Stacks:
SB (1,920)
Hero (1,080)

Blinds: 40/80

Pre-Flop: (120, 2 players) Hero is BB Qspades poker card Jhearts poker card
SB raises to 240, Hero goes all-in 1,080, SB calls 840

Flop: 9diamonds poker card 7hearts poker card 8hearts poker card (2,160, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: 10diamonds poker card (2,160, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: Qdiamonds poker card (2,160, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 2,160
SB shows a flush, King high
Kdiamonds poker card 7diamonds poker card
Hero shows a straight, Eight to Queen
Qspades poker card Jhearts poker card

SB wins 2,160 (net +1,080)

Hero lost 1,080

Struggle

Sunday, August 15th, 2010

Just had a game I was proud to have won, even though villain was a drooler he hit so often, and so big, that I really had to cling on in there;

Started out ok with a flopped 2pair OOP which fortunately he did all the betting for me (in hindsight I was passive, but it was early on and he bet pot on flop & turn, so caution was prob best anyway).

Next hand I had QQ IP, he massively 3bet me to 200 so it was an easy shove. He called with 93s!!! Maybe it’s his lucky hand or something, but since the board went 99A43 for a FH maybe there’s something in that.

He then continued to amaze me by chasing a gutshot down – unfortunately when he hit it also gave me a weaker straight;

  • Absurdly chased draw
    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    Pokerstars
    2 Players

    $10.00+$0.50

    Stacks:
    SB (1,720)
    Hero (1,280)

    Blinds: 10/20

    Pre-Flop: (30, 2 players) Hero is BB 7spades poker card 10spades poker card
    SB calls 10, Hero checks

    Flop: 10hearts poker card 6diamonds poker card 9diamonds poker card (40, 2 players)
    Hero bets 40, SB calls 40

    Turn: 4clubs poker card (120, 2 players)
    Hero bets 80, SB calls 80

    River: 8diamonds poker card (280, 2 players)
    Hero bets 200, SB raises to 400, Hero calls 200

    Final Pot: 1,080
    Hero shows
    7spades poker card 10spades poker card
    SB shows a straight, Seven to Jack
    Jclubs poker card 7hearts poker card

    SB wins 1,080 (net +540)

    Hero lost 540

Next hand was my fault though

  • should have respected his raises
    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    PokerStars
    2 Players

    $10.00+$0.50

    Stacks:
    SB (2,120)
    Hero (880)

    Blinds: 10/20

    Pre-Flop: (30, 2 players) Hero is BB 10spades poker card 8spades poker card
    SB calls 10, Hero checks

    Flop: 2diamonds poker card 8diamonds poker card 2spades poker card (40, 2 players)
    Hero bets 40, SB calls 40

    Turn: Ahearts poker card (120, 2 players)
    Hero bets 100, SB raises to 200, Hero calls 100

    River: 3clubs poker card (520, 2 players)
    Hero checks, SB bets 300, Hero calls 300

    Final Pot: 1,120
    Hero shows
    10spades poker card 8spades poker card
    SB shows two pair, Aces and Deuces
    Adiamonds poker card Qspades poker card

    SB wins 1,120 (net +560)

    Hero lost 560

. Trouble was it left me with only 300 chips, and this is where I’m pleased with myself for not giving up;

  • 1st double up
    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    PokerStars
    2 Players

    $10.00+$0.50

    Stacks:
    SB (2,625)
    Hero (375)

    Blinds: 15/30

    Pre-Flop: (45, 2 players) Hero is BB Jdiamonds poker card Aspades poker card
    SB calls 15, Hero goes all-in 375, SB calls 345

    Flop: 4spades poker card 8clubs poker card Ahearts poker card (750, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Turn: Jclubs poker card (750, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: 7clubs poker card (750, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: 750
    Hero shows two pair, Aces and Jacks
    Jdiamonds poker card Aspades poker card
    SB shows high card Ace
    Khearts poker card Qspades poker card

    Hero wins 750 (net +375)

    SB lost 375

  • 2nd double up
    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    PokerStars
    2 Players

    $10.00+$0.50

    Stacks:
    SB (2,220)
    Hero (780)

    Blinds: 15/30

    Pre-Flop: (45, 2 players) Hero is BB 5clubs poker card 6spades poker card
    SB calls 15, Hero checks

    Flop: 2spades poker card 7clubs poker card 8clubs poker card (60, 2 players)
    Hero checks, SB checks

    Turn: 4diamonds poker card (60, 2 players)
    Hero bets 60, SB raises to 300, Hero goes all-in 750, SB calls 450

    River: 2diamonds poker card (1,560, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: 1,560
    Hero shows a straight, Four to Eight
    5clubs poker card 6spades poker card
    SB shows two pair, Nines and Deuces
    9diamonds poker card 9hearts poker card

    Hero wins 1,560 (net +780)

    SB lost 780

And then the final hand – he shoved when I had KQo. TBH I hate calling shoves with this hand – I ought to stove it, but it never seems to hold up that well. Hmm, so maybe looking back I shouldn’t be so proud of this game since it ends on a flip when really I could have beat him by playing solidly. He was 100/100 and clearly chased down crap, so there was no need to flip – I think I was irrationally seeing him as a ‘lucky’ player, and if you’re going to pitch yourself against random bingo hands you might as well do it in a single preflop shove. Oh well, maybe not so great, but I won, and that’s what counts :-D

  • final hand
    No Limit Holdem Tournament
    PokerStars
    2 Players

    $10.00+$0.50

    Stacks:
    Hero (1,560)
    BB (1,440)

    Blinds: 15/30

    Pre-Flop: (45, 2 players) Hero is SB Qspades poker card Kdiamonds poker card
    Hero raises to 90, BB goes all-in 1,440, Hero calls 1,350

    Flop: 7hearts poker card Qdiamonds poker card Jspades poker card (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Turn: 3spades poker card (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: 10diamonds poker card (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: 2,880
    Hero shows a pair of Queens
    Qspades poker card Kdiamonds poker card
    BB shows a pair of Threes
    3diamonds poker card Aspades poker card

    Hero wins 2,880 (net +1,440)

    BB lost 1,440

Update: Yep, stoved KQ for all-in pre’s and it doesn’t look great – 40% against a 10% range. It’s not until the opponent’s calling range has opened up to 20% does it get to 50-50. Filtering my hands on HEM shows the same thing, 40% winrate (not massive sample though). Conclusion – shoving over a 3bet is probably ok (because of FE) although flatting the 3bet is ok too (I guess), but calling a shove is iffy unless you know opponent is a moron or stacks really short.

Update II: lol, I’m going to ignore my HEM stats, sample size is just way too small – I was checking win rates of other hands and all non-A broadways do < 40% while all A+broadway is > 40% with the exception of AKs, which is a horrendous 16%. If it can be that far out then it’s obvious I need loads and loads more hands before anything relevant can be made of things (obvious really I suppose).

Party Poker’s Stupidity

Saturday, August 14th, 2010

Got an email today from Party Poker;

Dear Meteoric,

Our records show that that you have not logged in to your account for 180 days.

A $ 6.43 administration fee** has been charged to your inactive account. The next charge will be deducted from you account balance on: 11-Sep-2010 ET.

Stupid idiots. I did know that was their policy, and they gave me the chance to avoid it by playing at least one raked hand, but tbh how moronic is that. So I avoided the payment by withdrawing all my cash.

Surprisingly I found $50 in there, so that was nice.


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