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Archive for April, 2010

Update

Saturday, April 10th, 2010

I’m now happily entrenched playing $30s, and so far this is proving to be a big month;

So much so that my BR is about to tip over $1k which is a massive milestone for me. When that happens I should probably move to $50s with some confidence even though it only just meets the 20 buy-in level. The main reason I should feel confident is that I discovered the ‘Graph Buy-ins’ option in HEM and it shows a really consistent win rate for my husngs;

That seems to hide the fact that my $20 games were exactly breakeven so maybe it doesn’t mean that much. However I’ve not noticed the $30 games to be particularly scary.

I also played my first pot limit Omaha husng today (for a massive $1!). I won, but to be honest I didn’t have a clue to what I was doing. I just have no feel whatsoever as to what a strong hand is. I thought it might be a good route into playing PLO HU cash, but the traffic is very low so maybe it’s not worthwhile.

Happy Easter Monday!

Monday, April 5th, 2010

Whoohoo – the holiday players are out in force!

Half way through that epic streak I started getting jitters about continuing since I didn’t want to break it. That just shows how I need to bolster my confidence – when the player pool is so weak a real winning player wouldn’t even stop to pee.

So I told myself to just keep opening the tables and carry on until it gets bad. As it was it didn’t really turn bad – even the regs who sat me lost. Finally a spewy player beat me (due to a shove called by me with AQ (my spew!) and then a suckout where he paired his kicker). One loss after 8 games in a row shouldn’t mean it’s all over, but I’m a bit played out now I think. I’m going to play tennis in a couple of hours, so that’ll balance the day nicely (as long as I win).

Security

Sunday, April 4th, 2010

I have recently been called an infamous luckbox by some dodgy russian. I would just like to say for the record that hands like the following only occur once every couple of games – how outrageous to call me a luckbox!

No Limit Holdem Tournament
2 Players

$20 + $1 Heads Up Sit & Go

Stacks:
SB Hero (1,885)
BB Villain (1,115)

Blinds: 25/50

Pre-Flop: (75, 2 players) Hero is SB 4diamonds poker card Jclubs poker card
Hero raises to 100, Villain calls 50

Flop: 6hearts poker card 4hearts poker card 10diamonds poker card (200, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets 200, Villain calls 200

Turn: Khearts poker card (600, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero goes all-in 1,585, Villain goes all-in 815

Hero shows 4diamonds poker card Jclubs poker card
Villain shows Kdiamonds poker card Jdiamonds poker card

Two cards left in the deck that can help our unfortunate hero!

River: 4clubs poker card (3,000, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: 3,000
Hero has three of a kind, Fours
Villain has two pair, Kings and Fours

Hero wins 3,000 (net +1,115)

Villain lost 1,115

I have made my feelings clear that all-in EV graphs are misleading and erroneous, but maybe I’m somewhat biased – I checked my lifetime history, and for cash I’m $340 over expected $ and for husngs I’m $235 over. If I didn’t believe that those calcs were complete and utter tosh then I’d be deluding myself that I can play poker (so I know which delusion is the healthiest!).

Other news – finally made 5k Full Tilt points so that I could order their security key. Seems to have taken ages to make those points (I think I threw away loads on big MTT satellites before deciding that I wanted a key). While I haven’t got vast amounts of dolares in my account it is slowly increasing. At some point this year it’s quite likely to exceed what’s actually in my regular bank account (British indebted society sucks), and if I’m going to get all paranoid about my personal account being online, then obviously I should take all possible steps to secure my poker accounts.

Now I just have to wait 6 months for it to arrive.

Perceptions

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

ok, bank holiday Friday so started my positive thinking (you did mean that Yegor?). So far so good – played a $20 and won it. Small sample size though.

I’m not posting about a single $20 win obv :-) but about how sharkscope is a bit of a double edged sword. I sat first since all the tables were empty and when someone joined me I sharkscoped them just out of interest. It’s funny how a little frisson of pleasure (or relief) appears when you see that little jumping goldfish by their name :-D So I thought this should go ok (damn, positive thinking failed pretty quickly there – should have been thinking, yeah! in the bag man! Oh well).

As it turned out the game was a real PITA, and I came pretty close to losing it a few times. The guy’s weakness was that he’d go to showdown with any piece of the board. The eye opener was when he called down with Q7 on a board of 34973. He also held onto strong Ace rags to the bitter end, hitting on the river several times after I’d barreled the earlier streets.

That meant I had to hold back and just hope I hit the board enough to value bet him out of the game. Bluffs were going to be useless. Fortunately I was given those opportunities and it went my way. Just as well really as I think if it hadn’t my positive state of mind would have taken a huge battering.

Somewhat shaken by that near miss I added him to my buddy list and saw that he’d sat down again at a $40 hunsg (martingales perhaps?). I opened the table to see he was already started against someone. I sharkscoped his opponent and this is what I saw;

He’d sat with the 16th biggest winner on the cereus network. Should be interesting I thought so I railed the game.

It went quite differently to my game. Vulcain999 played very small – minraising pre and folding easily to flop bets. He didn’t seem to make any big aggressive moves and didn’t commit himself to large pots. Chesta69′s tendencies that I saw in my game didn’t seem to arise mainly because they just weren’t going to showdown.

As the game progressed it became more aggressive, and most of the gains were made in preflop 3bets. Vulcain999 was never ahead in chips, and finally he made a strong move which was called down with a low top pair (on a 3 to the flush board) and showed a complete bluff. The ranked player made the losing player’s leak into the right play, possibly because he just hadn’t gained that information earlier in the match.

I think why I’m posting this is partly motivated by Simon’s post where he decribes a fish he played against 4 times and lost. In husngs understanding the opponent is the main thing – is he a station, a bluffer, a maniac. Will he fold to a cbet on a dry board or a drawy board etc. I’m saying the obvious here really. However, to objectify your opponent as simply a ‘fish’ doesn’t help. Even a fish’s bad move can be the right move if we play into it.


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