I decided that I need to be a bit less ‘gut feel’ about the last stages of my husngs – the bit where you have your opponent on the ropes and he’s got 4bb left and is shoving every hand (um, or where you’re in that unfortunate position). I get a bit tight in this situation and tend to only call when I have an ace, and that’s really bad since theoretically I can call (or push) a much wider range of hands and be just fine. My problem is that I hate flipping, and when you’ve spent a lot of effort getting the bozo into this position only for him to bounce back on a flip pisses me off. However you just can’t play poker at that point really – he can’t raise pre to see a flop, so there’s no choice. Truth is you just gotta see those flips through, and if you’re good enough then even if he pulls off a couple of flips in a row then each time you’ll be able to bash him back down and eventually one of those flips will do the right thing.
So, getting rid of the ‘gut feeling’ stuff means getting to grips with Nash equilibrium theory, and all the charts and guff that comes with it. Not that it’s complicated really – two charts in all;
1) if you’re the one going to push (or not):
| A | K | Q | J | T | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| A | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| K | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19.9 | 19.3 |
| Q | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 12.7 |
| J | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 18.6 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| T | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| 9 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| 8 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 13.3 | 17.5 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 18.8 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 7 | 20 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 9 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 13.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 6 | 20 | 15.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 7 | 10.7 | 20 | 20 | 16.3 | * | 2 |
| 5 | 20 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 6 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 20 | 20 | ** | 2 |
| 4 | 20 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 2.1 | 20 | *** | 1.8 |
| 3 | 20 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 20 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 20 | 11.6 | 7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 20 |
2) They’ve pushed – do you call?
| A | K | Q | J | T | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| A | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| K | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17.6 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| Q | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| J | 20 | 20 | 19.5 | 20 | 18.0 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| T | 20 | 20 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 20 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| 9 | 20 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 20 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 8 | 20 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 20 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 7 | 20 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 20 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 6 | 20 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 20 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| 5 | 20 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 20 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| 4 | 18.3 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 20 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 20 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 15.0 |
(shaded squares = suited hands)
Divide the smallest stack by the big blind and compare it to the value for your hand. If it’s less then shove (or call a shove). If it’s more then either play postflop poker or fold to their shove. You’re supposed to adjust this depending on whether opponent is a nit or an aggrotard, but for now I’ll just take it as it comes – should make me a bit braver for the kill hopefully.
There’s also an excellent spreadsheet a 2p2er created that does this as well as some other theories. Worth a look at (go to last post for his final version).
Update: I knocked up a javascript version here; http://www.meteoricpoker.com/nash.php – enter the values and press return (or tab – basically anything to let it know you’ve changed the value).
just watch the vids i sent you – you’ll find all the tables and links there..