Another low blog post week has gone by – I have been playing, but it’s been remarkably unexciting. The last three sessions have been particularly disappointing as I played well 99% of the time only to mess a couple of hands up in each making each come out -ve.
The last session’s big bad hand probably wasn’t played badly if you go by pot odds though;
5 Players
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($9.46)
CO ($5.20)
BTN ($11.32)
SB ($2.19)
BB ($2)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is UTG 7
8
Hero raises to $0.14, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.14, SB calls $0.12, 1 fold
Flop: 10
J K ($0.47, 3 players)
SB goes all-in $2.05, Hero calls $2.05, BTN goes all-in $11.18, Hero goes all-in $7.27
Turn: 2
($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)
River: 6
($23.02, 3 players, 3 all-in)
Final Pot: $23.02
Hero shows
7 8
BTN shows
J K
SB shows
4 Q
BTN wins $21.61 ( won +$10.29 )
Hero lost -$9.46
SB lost -$2.19
However, it was a big pot to gambool on. All the worse since the gamble didn’t pay off. It was clear that I had to hit that flush to win, since it was unlikely both the other players were on a draw (and even if they were it’s really unlikely I’d have had the highest card!). Even hitting the flush was probably not a guaranteed win either (even though it turned out neither were on a flush draw). So, lost 2 buy-ins at a stroke there 
There have been a couple of changes in my game lately, although more experimental than definite leak fixing. The first is donk betting. More often than not if in the situation where I could donk bet I do. Either I’ve missed the flop and the preflop raiser checked, in which case I bet as a bluff, or I’ve hit the flop and I bet for value. The betting as a bluff is working out I believe – at NL5 most checks from the villain is because they’ve missed the flop (I’m not expecting this to be the case >NL10 though – too many people understand the cbet). The donk betting for value though is starting to be uncertain – it seems common opinion is it’s better to check and wait for the turn, after all only better hands would call. On the other hand, a large percentage of players will call a flop bet (dismissing it as a cbet with air) and reevaluate on the turn. I’m still unsure what my line is with donk betting really – I wish it wasn’t called donk betting though, it seems overly disparaging for what could be a reasonable line (at what times though?).
Second change is more shoves with AK – if I open with AK and get 3bet I’ll shove, whereas before I’d call and wait to hit the flop before continuing. I checked PokerTracker and found that the fold equity in the shove outweighed the losses in the flip in coming up against a pair (ie let’s assume AK vs PP cancel out, leaving plenty of profit from AK vs AQ, AJ etc and 3betters who fold). However, last three sessions my flips have all gone the wrong way, so suffering a bit from variance there (btw, calling a shove with AK is a different kettle of fish, and generally I won’t unless I’ve 3bet leaving a small relative stack behind – too many shoves are KK+ and it doesn’t seem to be worth it).
So. Bankroll is at $220, with about $30 to come in rakeback. I’m annoyed that I haven’t got to $250 from the cards themselves, but $250 is $250, and I’ll be going to NL10 as soon as that Rakeback arrives. Actually I’m also annoyed that $50 of that $220 was the Take 2 bonus, so it’s really not like I’ve played my way here although filtering on my NL5 results does show a $180 win so far, and it’s only the NL10 that’s destroyed my earnings so far. Mixed feelings, but certainly not feeling that I’m beating the nanostakes game really.
Been reading for a while. Thought I’d comment.
First, that 78cc hand is pretty spewy, but it sounds like you ultimately know that. You’re not getting direct odds from the open shove to chase your flush, and your combo draw is very weak, as he could be jamming KQ and QJ there a lot and your nine is no good. When the BTN shoves behind, you might be getting 2:1, but since it’s a 3way pot, a lot of your outs end up in the ranges they’re holding, and I don’t think you’re getting the right odds to call against all possible holding, not with higher draws certainly being possible, and the sets coming back with paired boards.
Flop is a fold, probably both times you acted. Preflop isn’t awful, but at these stakes, I’d rather have that hand in position. Opening it up from EP like that, with little fold equity against weak players, kind of set you up for the fall.
Best of luck at 10NL.
Hi, cheers for joining in!
Now that you mentioned it, I’m surprised I did open 87s from UTG – it’s outside my range (that I intended to play). Guess I’m slipping a bit into being a bit too loose again.
I think after the SB shoved his shortstack I called hoping that the BTN would fold or call (a call giving me odds to try and draw to the flush) – I didn’t really expect the shove. Once it had happened I don’t think I put enough thought into it, and it was definitely the gamble instinct that took over.