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Archive for July, 2009

Hand Analysis

Monday, July 27th, 2009

Here’s a good post I found in the 2p2 archives where some guy gives 3 situations, and then gives some really in depth analysis;

BobbyFito’s quiz

It’s kinda long, so here’s a shortcut to his answers.

I found it after reading about combinatrics, which I’m still not understanding properly, but possibly it’s worth applying a few brain cells…

Hard Work

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Much of my downswing was my own fault, mainly from tilt where I wasn’t hitting any decent hands – I’d then get spewy which would make it worse, and then finally go on a monkey tilt shove fest. Not a good strategy really.

So I lost a ton, and then took a step back and reconsidered what I was doing. I wasn’t going to drop down since 2NL and 5NL are usually a nightmare, but I was killing some time yesterday and ended up playing 2NL for a couple of hours coming in at 80BB/100. After that I figured my head was on straight again.

So today I was back at 10NL, and it still went all wrong! This time however it’s ok – I played properly, no tilt, just good ABC poker. Unfortunately the poker god was having a laugh;

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
2 players

Stacks:
Hero (BTN) ($14.30)
BB ($10.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 2 players) Hero is BTN J T
Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: 6 7 J ($0.60, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, BB goes all-in $9.85, Hero calls $4.85

Turn: 5 ($20.30, 2 players)

River: 9 ($20.30, 2 players)

Final Pot: $20.30
Hero shows: J T
BB shows: 7 5

BB wins $19.30 ( won +$9.15 )
Hero lost -$10.15

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players

Stacks:
UTG ($11.80)
CO ($10.00)
Hero (BTN) ($12.00)
SB ($11.10)
BB ($14.60)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN A A
UTG raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.60, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.20

Flop: 3 6 3 ($4.85, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2, Hero goes all-in $10.40, BB folds, UTG goes all-in $8.20

Turn: T ($25.45, 2 players)

River: 4 ($25.45, 2 players)
BB says “lol”, BB says “hahaha”

Final Pot: $25.25
UTG shows: K A
Hero shows: A A

UTG wins $24 ( won +$12.20 )
Hero wins $0.20 ( lost -$11.80 )
BB lost -$1.60

Not that I was winning much anyway, but these two hands left me -$14, rather than the deserved $34 up…

Just for balance here’s a standard hand where I’m being stupid;

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 players

Stacks:
UTG ($10.00)
Hero (UTG+1) ($14.30)
CO ($10.25)
BTN ($12.25)
SB ($10.00)
BB ($4.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 T Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: 4 J 3 ($0.70, 2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: T ($1.50, 2 players)
SB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: J ($2.70, 2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Final Pot: $4.70
SB shows: J Q
Hero shows: T Q

SB wins $4.50 ( won +$2.20 )
Hero lost -$2.30

Couldn’t be more obvious that he had a J. The big leak is that I didn’t fold the turn – the second barrel was all the information I needed (I think)…

What a month :-( ;
July09

More Analysis

Friday, July 24th, 2009

I found a post about variance and standard deviation etc. Despite being an ex-physicist my maths skills aren’t super hot (especially stats), but I thought I’d give it a go.

Ok, so here’s my results from 1st Jan 2009, just at 10NL;

10NlSince1Jan09

(why just that? Mainly because my record at 2NL & 5 NL sucks, and I like to kid my self that I’m a winning player :-D Also it’s from my PT at work, so doesn’t include the horrendous -$45 on Monday, so it’s kinda better than it should be).

Here’s the stats, including the new standard deviation calcs that have reappeared in PT;

Limit $0.10 NL (6 max)
Hands 19,871
Hours 90.65
Amount Won $266.20
BB/100 6.7
$/100 $1.34
BB/Hour 14.68
$/Hour $2.94
Std Dev BB/100 48.81
Std Dev B/Hour 42.25
Std Dev/100 $9.76
Std Dev/Hour $8.45

So my SD/100 is $9.76 (48.81BB), while my average winnings is $1.34 (6.7).

So, 68% of the time my winrate is $1.34 +/- $9.76 (or 7 +/- 49 BB/100)

If I’m running really bad, then I’ll do -$8.42/100  ( -42 BB/100)

If I run really hot, then it’s $11.10/100 ( 56 BB/100 ).

That’s huge!!! To all intents and purposes it just seems that it’s more luck than skill – I’m just lucky it went up and not down :-( . I wonder if my Std Dev  is particularly bad?

It does seem to make some sense – I’ve often been in a session thinking, ‘oh yeah baby 30BB/100′ while equally thinking, ‘fuck, -30BB/100, why’s it all going wrong!’

hmm, maybe I’m not understanding things – I stuck the values in a risk of ruin calculator;

Risk of Ruin 1.628513%
Win Rate $2.94/100
Standard Deviation $8.45/100
Bankroll $50 (uh, it’s a bit better than that ~$70, but I just randomly typed that in for some reason

1.6% – I can live with that. Trouble is I’m about to prove how easy it is to hit that possibility… :-(

Downswing Continues

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

This morning: -$45. Don’t want to talk about it right now.

Update: Started looking through PT;

This isn’t from this morning, as I didn’t update my PT at work, but this is comparing my +$63 session two weekends ago (749 hands), and Monday’s -$27 session (904 hands);

stats

Good session;

hit flop in some way (ie > pair); 61 hands, which went to win $62
didn’t hit; 64 hands, winning $8

flush or straight draw on flop; 21 hands, winning $16

I folded on flop: 23 times (-$11), turn: 6 times (-$3.60), river: 14 times (-$7.50)

(I’d consider a pot < $2 to be medium/small and don’t mind which way they go so much – ie If I lose a $1.50 pot on a bluff which the villain sees, then I reckon that’s worth the money in terms of table image – does that make sense?)
pots won > $2: 17 (!)
pots lost > $2: 7

Bad session;

hit flop in some way (ie > pair); 91 hands, which went to win $4
didn’t hit; 60 hands, losing $19

flush or straight draw on flop; 20 hands, losing $8.70

I folded on flop: 17 times (-$7.80), turn: 20 times (-$13), river: 13 times (-$23)

pots won > $2:  5
pots lost > $2:  6

Lunch break over, but still thinking of things to try out in PT…

Monday Mornings Continue to NOT Deliver

Monday, July 20th, 2009

Another bad Monday morning :-(    Down $30 this morning which puts me at a running downswing of about $60 ruining that nice heater the previous weekend. I might even be back in the red too…

Can’t put my finger on where it’s going wrong though. I’m hitting a few nice hands, but not getting them to pay off in the same way some of my spectacular losses are going. I also haven’t seen too many suckouts against me either (ie no miracle river cards). Mostly it’s things like two pair or top pair being beaten by a better two pair – nothing outstanding, but enough to add up to several buy-ins. Possibly I’m being a bit too reckless, and even though these would probably be losing sessions still I might be inflating the pot too much and then having to go to showdown with very little.

Depressing though. If this continues then clearly my recent winning progress was just a lucky break, and I’m still crap at poker. Let’s see if the rest of the week improves or not…

Poker Security and Preventing Account Hijacks

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

I’ve noticed that there’s been a lot of account hijacks lately, and it worries me even though I haven’t got much in my bankroll. My concern mainly comes from realising that it’s not just my poker account that’s at risk, but really it’s lots of sites such as paypal, ebay, amazon etc. About the only thing that I feel secure about is my online bank, but there’s still plenty of ways the bad guys can get to your money.

So I looked around and found out some ways of securing things and warning signs you’ve been hacked;

GMail

If you use gmail, then go to your Google Accounts settings (ie from Gmail, go to Settings, Accounts, and at the bottom Google Account Settings).  Then go to your password recovery options and turn on SMS – that way to recover your password you’ll get a text to your mobile instead of an email which a hacker could read.

Also while you’re there check that a hacker hasn’t added his address to your recovery emails (which has given them a backdoor to your gmail anytime they want).

Also change that security question to something no-one could guess, brute force or find out by googling you (ie don’t use anything where the answer is a name or is possibly in public domain like mother’s maiden name etc).

Email in general

First thing is not to use your regular everyday email account for things that involve money or things you don’t want to lose (so that could be poker accounts, paypal type sites, amazon, eBay, domain registration, etc).The risk is from keyloggers – you can be on holiday & pop into an internet cafe, check your mail, and that’s it – some hacker has your password. Once they have that, then they’ll get the passwords to everything else (just by clicking ‘forgot password’).

So create a second email account just for your money stuff. Don’t use it for anything else. You should check it regularly though, but only from a secure computer (ie at home, not a cafe). It should be a very rare day that you’d ever send an email from this account.

I would have said don’t use webmail like hotmail or gmail either, but since gmail added that SMS password recovery it’s looks more secure now. Trouble is email is so unsecure that it’s hard to know what to do. Make sure you have a good password, which leads nicely onto;

Passwords

There’s all the usual stuff about strong passwords etc, but it’s pretty hard to avoid having similar passwords for lots of different things when you have so many to remember. An excellent solution is to use KeePass. This is an open source tool that holds all your passwords in an encrypted database. It’s a small enough program that you can carry around on a USB key if you like. The big advantage is that once you use a program like this, all your passwords can become ridiculously strong passwords like  HPL+*?$0gO3o1oONS^\3

All you have to do is remember one password while all your online accounts have crazy unbreakable passwords.

The one downside is if you lose your KeePass database or it gets corrupted, or you forget your master password, then you’re in a lot of trouble. All I can say is make backups of the database and don’t forget the master password! It’s an awesome tool, and worth getting the hang of.

If you use the save passwords feature of your internet browser, then if it’s Firefox you must set a master password now! Otherwise anyone could access your passwords. If you use Internet Explorer, then all I can say is ‘Dont’ do it!’. Again, KeePass can help you out a lot here. The Firefox master password is pretty good as it encrypts all the usernames/passwords using the master so it’s fairly hard to get at them once you’ve done this (ie the passwords aren’t actually stored anywhere in readable format, while if you don’t set that master password, they are!).

Poker sites

It seems only Pokerstars is getting it’s act together on this. First turn on the PIN number – it’s a bit of hassle having to enter your password and then click on 6 numbers to get in, but it’s a fairly strong defense against keyloggers. Secondly, if you’ve got 6000FPP, get the RSA key now!

General Security

Seems obvious that you should have a firewall and antivirus software. However it should also be obvious that in just about all poker site’s Terms of Service they state that if you don’t have this kind of software then they won’t give you any money back if you get hacked. It’s the same as an insurance company refusing to pay out because you left the back door wide open.

Freeware antivirus isn’t bad – AVG will do.

Don’t install anything dodgy – no warez or software installed with cracks off the internet. Do you really think people are making this available out of the goodness of their hearts? Most of it contains malware (viruses, trojans etc) or spyware. It’s just not worth it. If you have been doing this then it’s not enough to just stop and uninstall the dodgy software – you’ll really have to wipe your drive and reinstall windows again.

Misc

While sorting out that stuff I also found that PayPal has an SMS system too – in their case it’s an SMS message every time you log in. You pay for the SMS but worth it unless you’re logging in 20 times a day.

So, basically;

  • Turn on SMS password recovery for Gmail (check no-one already has backdoor entry)
  • Don’t use your regular everyday email for poker sites
  • Turn on the PIN for PokerStars and get that RSA key
  • Firewall and anti-virus software & keep your PC clean.
  • Try out KeePass

Weekends Continue to Deliver

Saturday, July 11th, 2009

I think this must be my biggest session ever;

11Jul09

It’s made the weekly result look pretty good;

week06Jul09b

Apart from the disastrous Monday & Tuesday, that’s a really solid winrate!

The bankroll is sitting at $190, which makes that cashout the other month frustrating – if I hadn’t done that I’d be looking at a BR of $370 which would be quite comfortable for 25NL. Just under $200 isn’t quite enough, but not far off. If it goes well on Sunday then I may be ready.

Update: Sunday has been a disaster -$20 :-(   I guess I play a bit wild so should expect big losses, although I did mess up twice where someone shoved when I had a flush draw and I called! I must make a determined effort to not do that, it’s just stupid – without those two plays I’d have a $0 session. Other big losses were a set over set and a loose idiot hitting a two outer flush, so I’m not going to beat myself up about that, but it all added up to a crap morning. So I’m going to do something less destructive for a while…


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