Mediocre session today. I felt confident that I wasn’t making too many bad decisions. One hand was a preflop all-in with JJ’s that perhaps is a bit dubious. As it was villain had AK and he managed to get a K on the flop. A more poorly played hand was this one;

Not entirely sure what my thought processes were there. Perhaps if I’d checked the turn he might have folded the river assuming the flush, but it’s pretty unlikely. I should have just folded the flop. I think I was slightly fed up that playing PP’s for sets really isn’t working for me. I hit one set today and it paid $0.11. Maybe I should at least check the flop, although so often slow playing these things turns into a disaster.

I think I’ll dig into PokerTracker and see if set mining is remotely paying off for me…

Here’s today’s graph;

Also with regards to my frequency chart in the last post, response on the 2p2 forum was fairly light. People seemed to find it interesting, but ultimately couldn’t see anything useful that could be extracted from it.

I tried a few analysis tricks I knew from my former physicist days, and to be honest nothing came up for me either. In the end it was remarkably symmetrical, even symmetric between -ve and +ve wins. This is something I’ve wondered about – when I look at my (huge) losses, it pretty much equals the blinds. If I hadn’t had to put in the blind, I’d be breakeven!

Edit: ok, so I pulled out the stats on my PP. Not easy when I’m supposed to be working

Since before xmas (when I tightened up my range in general), I’ve had 173 PP. Odds of hitting a set on the flop is 7:1, so theoretically I should have hit 20 sets. I’ve only hit 10, so behind on the odds there.

Total wins from those sets: $2   It would have been $4, but there were two sets that lost (only two!), both AAA, and in both cases I slow played to let the villain draw a straight. They lost $2 between them.

So, what does that mean? Oh, I need another stat – money lost for seeing flop with the PP’s that didn’t hit a set. That came out to -$2.71 – leaving a grand profit of -$0.71

Perhaps that’s a bit simplistic – I think I need to take out the high pairs which I’d play anyway, and see how the low to middle PP’s did.

TBH, this is probably a self-defeating exercise – just because I’ve lost  money on set mining so far, doesn’t mean I will in the future. It seems generally accepted that set mining is a +EV thing to do. What I need to do is figure out how to extract maximum value when I hit, and minimum loss when I don’t…